New EA The Logic Behind Optimization Probability York131.1

Dear Traders, Look at the following two graphs, and check which Optimization graph represents better trading Robot?

Back Testing with a specific setting values, will not prove the Expert is working. Therefor the optimization process is need to be done in full with the below Instructions.

A

B


As we know for a fact that optimization process with genetic algorithms, shuffle the external variables of the robot similar to a binary search, in order to find the highest results of the developing population of results as the evolutions of the cells performing the search for the optimal settings. (ref : OptimizingWithGA.PDF - https://www.msi.umn.edu/sites/default/files/OptimizingWithGA.pdf )

In Order to select the most probable and profitable settings for the external variables, by examining the Y axis of a desired Profit, you will need to check how many of those in the X axis have succeed in producing the same profit. As an example lets take the two graphs above, and check visually, which of the two have more population in relation to a selected Y axis profit. If we look carefully, for example in Graph B the Profit of 180 USD has the least amount of population as the X is increased. One should also take into account the number of produced results in the X axis, as the number of results increase the probability of the expert increases for it's success. Which Means that, the probability of having profit with external variables selected in the area of 180 USD, is low relative to the 180 USD value in the Y Axis of graph A.

In short, from the above two graphs as an example you can test and compare any different expert advisors with the two graphs produced by the optimization process, keeping in mind that these graphs change for different time frames and different conditions of the Market.

 

New version to be out soon.

Here is another graph of what it would mean a better performing Expert Compared to the previous two. If we look also at the number of successful results, you will notice there is a higher number of results on the X axis, which should also be checked with the total number of iteration the optimization process has performed. If you divide the number of pass iterations by the total number of iterations processed, you will get a approximate percentage of the success you might expect of the Expert Advisor. This success rate decreases rapidly the more you can see large number of separations in the graph, which means the larger the empty spaces the more the decrease of success rate.


Total iterations : 7172/11264 = 63%

Total iterations : 6795/14750 = 46%

Total iterations : 4019/19650 = 20%

 

Hello PCWalker,
your contribution looks very professional.

I have 2 questions:
1) what is the edge your system has? what inefficiencis does it exploit?
2) real accounts on myfxbook?

Thanks

 

If you try to explain to me what do you mean by edge, and inefficiencies, I will try to answer you.
You need to try it, study it, and learn to trade it until you will have the experience of applying it to a real account.

 

Hello PCWalker,

thanks for answering..

"You need to try it, study it..."
OK. Give me MQL4 -- no further questions

 

Why don't you study programming, a little mathematics, and work on something that you feel will be professional, and then you will not need my Expert.
That is much better then just trying to study someone's code. And if you feel I am wrong, then you can share with me some of your own ideas, and I will try to share mine.
Thank you.

 

Thank you ZeroHundred, It is relatively advance compared to looking only at a single outcome most users choose to judge the performance of an EA. But if they read all my posts, they will understand that it is a waste of time to check a EA only by one single outcome of one single settings, because that settings will never have the exact market conditions as it previously had when it was created.

 

Does anyone know how an Expert decides to buy or sell?

 

This is my review for this thread:
Thx

 

Thank you, Gokol... Now you only need to start using Zorro Trader.

 

thank you, bro I'll try it out.

 

thanks for share, its automatic EA or just indicator of ur system trade ?

 

It is an EA, Dear Kliverz

 

i just read on zorro trader,,sound like interesting

 

You can download, and start programming in less then 5 Min.

 

are you has used zorro trader at now ?

 

Yes, I am using Zorro Trader all the time.

 

good in real ?

 

No, one can answer that question, because no one can predict the market.
If you read all my posts, you will understand why?

 

If anyone can really feel the logic of my post, and can understand the importance of it, please share the article with all your friends, and trader, programmers, and others, that we may increase the awareness and success of all of us together, to bring better and more prosperity to our community.

Thank you.