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Date : 2nd March 2021.

Forex Update – March came in like a bull for Wall Street.

Market News Today

Yields spike (10-yr +9.27% – over 1.52), Equities tank (Nasdaq -3.52%, Nikkei -4%), USD off 3-year lows. Commodity, EM currencies & Sterling cool from highs. Oil holds up (US attack on Iranian groups in Syria), Gold falls further under $1770, BTC at $45K. US data yesterday biased to the upside (big fall Claims, Durables beat & GDP in-line.) Overnight – weak Housing, also weak but better than expected CPI & Retail data from JPY. Senate rejects $15 min wage in Stimulus bill and looks to trim the $1.9t proposals.

The dollar and yen rallied as a risk-off theme coursed through global markets, with equity markets, commodities, including base metals and oil, all tumbling. The sharp spike in US and most other sovereign yields this week and the associated concerns about inflation have driven the correction in risk assets and currencies. We maintain that sovereign yields are lifting out of exceptionally low levels, that rising yields and interest rates are par for the course in major bull markets in equities by historic standards, and that the prospect of higher corporate earnings can still carry equities higher. But for now, the prevailing bias is a risk-off one, although Treasury yields have dropped back quite sharply from highs today. In the mix today has been nThe major indexes surged sharply higher on the back of more good news on vaccines and the expectation of massive stimulus sooner than later. Another batch of stronger than expected data helped too. But opening the door for the gains was the more subdued tenor of the Treasury market. In the Asia session, the risk aversion returned and stock market sentiment faded. Major indexes quickly pared early gains and headed south, while Treasuries were supported and the US rate dropped back -0.2%.

The risk-on flows lifted longer dated Treasury yields, but the cheapening was much more orderly than last week’s furious 20 bps intraday jumps in the 10- and 30-year maturities. A heavy corporate calendar is also contributing to the losses in Treasuries with the focus on a $7 bln 6-part deal from Goldman Sachs.

Headlines:

The February ISM and the January construction spending strongly beat expectations and contributed to upward revisions in GDP projections.
The RBA left policy settings unchanged and while that was expected, market reaction suggests that there was some hope of supportive action, especially after the central bank doubled its bond purchases on Monday.
China’s banking regulator highlighted worries about bubbles in overseas financial markets, but also domestic property markets, with suggestions that leverage will be reduced, which only added to concerns about further tightening in China.
Dovish comments from ECB’s Villeroy, who called for an active use of PEPP purchases and flagging the possibility of a deposit rate cut seem to have helped to boost confidence that the central bank will manage to avoid a cliff edge scenario on stimulus, without stoking inflation.
The Pfizer PFE.N and AstraZeneca vaccines are more than 80% effective at preventing hospitalisations from COVID-19 in those over 80 after one dose of either shot, Public Health England said on Monday, citing a pre-print study.
Forex Market

EUR – 3rd day lower at 1.2075. Next Support at 1.2000.
GBP– crossed the 20-DMA and currently is traded at 1.3878.
JPY – Yen found buyers, leaving USDJPY at 106.80.
AUD – holds steady between 20-and 50-DMA
CAD –CAD has been soft, weighed on also by the continuing weak oil prices during the session.
GOLD –slumped to its lowest in 9 months, as a stronger Dollar and elevated US Treasury yields eroded investor appetite for the non-yielding metal.
USOil – below $60 as expectations that OPEC would agree to raise oil supply in a meeting this week added to pressure and worries over slowing demand in China dampened sentiment.

Today: Calendar focuses on Eurozone inflation data for February, as well as German jobless numbers and retail sales and Canadian GDP for Q4. Also on tap speeches from ECB’s Panetta and Fed’s Brainard.

One of the bigger movers – XAGUSD (-2.19% decline)

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

I think EUYJPY still in bullish and also with GBPJPY
meanwhile GBPUSD in downmarket but now in consolidation time

 

Date : 5th March 2021.

Market Update – March 5 – Jobs, Jobs, Jobs.

What Fed Chair Powell did not say that shook up the markets.

Wall Street turned sharply lower following Fed Chair Powell’s remarks, even though it was not what he said but what he did not mention that undermined equity sentiment. Specifically, he did not push back against the recent surge in Treasury rates. Indeed, he took attention of the spike and would be concerned by a “disorderly” move, providing tacit approval for the run-up in longer dated yields. Consequently, the stock market was dragged lower once again thanks to rising rates and expectations for more of the same as the economy and inflation pick-up further.

Headlines:

The Chair’s comments that he took attention of the spike and would be concerned by a “disorderly” move were not in the market’s narrative.
Fed Chair Powell’s perceived benign neglect of the surge in bond yields weighed on Treasuries and extended the recent selloff back toward the highs from February 25.
The US 10-year rate corrected slightly overnight but remains at 1.56%. The 10-year rate is currently down -5.3 bp at 0.079%, while yields jumped 6.0 bp and 7.5 bp in Australia and New Zealand respectively.
The tech-heavy USA100 over -3% lower intraday, with spill over to the broader indexes. However, the losses were pared in late trading with closing declines of -2.11% on the USA100, -1.34% on the USA500, and-1.11% on the USA30. JPN225 and ASX were still down -0.2% and -0.7% respectively at the close.
BoJ’s Kuroda sees no need to widen yield band. He said there is no need to widen the implicit band set for its long term yield target, while stressing the need to keep borrowing costs low to support the economy.
Oil prices jumped higher after the OPEC+ meeting decided to maintain current output levels. The USOIL is currently trading at USD 64.60 per barrel.
In Europe, key central bankers have also played down the rise in rates and signalled that the central bank won’t add additional measures next week that would reverse the rise in rates. Verbal intervention and a flexible use of PEPP purchases will likely be used to smooth an uptrend that most central bankers seem to feel is essentially justified, given the improved outlook for growth later in the year.
German manufacturing orders rose 1.4% m/m in January, more than anticipated
Forex Market
JPY – USD rallies again – USDJPY over 108.00
EUR –dropped against a largely stronger Dollar- Currently at 1.1947
GBP – at 1.3859
AUD – dipped below 50-DMA again, at 0.7686
CAD –steadied to 1.2660 after 1.2574 bottom
GOLD – breaks the $1,700 – trades on 1695 now
USOil – Oil rocketed following OPEC+ agreeing to no production increase and to keeping current levels for at least April. USOil at 64.60 up from 59.20 lows on Wednesday
Bitcoin – returns to 47K

Today: Attention will turn to the US February employment report, hourly earnings, unemployment rate, January trade report and consumer credit is due late in the session, seen rising $10.0 bln from $9.7 bln previously. Canadian Ivey Purchasing Index in the tap as well.

Biggest mover – NZDUSD (+0.45% as of 07:30 GMT)

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.
Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

Crypto currency especially bitcoin getting hype in 2020. Bitcoin reach record break high almost 10k in this year. However, sudden long also witness trader in the market. Lot of trader loss huge that time. Knowledge is more important in trading crypto. I am also a crypto trader. My broker Forex4you also provides major crypto pair. They always provide me best trading spread in those crypto pair.

 

Date : 8th March 2021.

Market Update – March 8 – Yields Sharply into Focus.

Market News Today

The $1.9t stimulus package passes Senate with few changes, final ratification could be this week. Strong NFP on Friday boosted Stocks (+1.95%), Yields (1.554%) and USD (91.90) into close. Yield differentials now coming sharply into focus. Houthi missile attack on the key Ras Tanura oil refinery spiked USOil prices 2.2% to within 4 cents of $68.00. Gold ($1700) remains weighed by rising yields and BTC pivots around 50k. China is aiming for 6%+ growth in 2021, (2.3% 2020), with manufacturing still 25% of GDP. Trade balance +119% vs Feb 2020. JPY data better than expected (Nikkei down 0.42%), but German Industrial Production missed significantly.

European stock markets are broadly higher, with the DAX and FTSE 100 posting gains of 0.6% and 0.7% respectively. US futures and in particular the NASDAQ are underperforming as improved confidence in the US recovery is hastening the rotation out of tech stocks. Bonds meanwhile are under pressure again, with the German 10-year rate up 2.0 bp at -0.285%, the Treasury yield 2.8 bp at 1.594%.

This week – ECB & BOC along with Inflation from US & China and GDP data from UK & Japan.

Today – ECB asset purchase data, BoE’s Bailey.

Biggest (FX) Mover @ (07:30 GMT) USDCHF (+0.39%) Moved higher on open over 20 MA and 0.9300, now breached R1 at 0.9320. Faster MAs aligned and trending higher, RSI 66 and rising, MACD histogram & signal line aligned lower but appear to be turning higher, well above 0 line. Stochs. into OB zone. H1 ATR 0.0010, Daily ATR 0.0067.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.

Stuart Cowell
Head Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

Date : 9th March 2021.
Market Update – March 9 – Yields & USD lead others follow.
Market News Today
USD holds its bid, 10-yr Yields rally. Yellen calls the $1.9t stimulus package “very strong” for the US economy. Nasdaq closed down -2.4% (10% below Feb high, a technical correction) but DOW gained 0.97%. PBOC lifted sentiment saying money supply would be in line with GDP growth and they did not see need for stimulus for next 5 years. Nikkei +1%. Yields and USD slip. Overnight – mixed data from JPY, surprise jump for a UK retail sales tracker and the German Trade balance.
The Dollar posted fresh highs before receding, with the USDIndex hitting a fresh 15-week peak at 92.50 and then declining to levels around 92.05. The greenback’s softening was concomitant with a dip in US Treasury yields, which was seen as the Asian session progressed. The 10-year US note yield ebbed below 1.560%, after peaking yesterday at levels above 1.610%.
In other markets, base metals dropped, diverging from the rise in stock markets. Oil prices also turned lower. USOil ebbed to a four-day low at $64.34, extending a correction from yesterday’s 29-month high at $67.98. The already mentioned up-then-down action of the Dollar provided the only directional theme among the main currencies. EURUSD lifted from a new one-month low at 1.1836 to a rebound peak so far at 1.1888 while USDJPY fell from a nine-month peak at 109.24 to a low at 108.75. Cable rose from near one-month lows to a four-day high at 1.3885, and AUDUSD lifted out of a one-month low at 0.7621. USDCAD saw an ebb from highs, with the pair remaining well within recent range bounds. In the bigger view, we expect the reflation trade to hold up as the year progresses given the evident success of Covid vaccinations in countries that are more advanced in the vaccine rollout, which should allow for the continued reopening of major economies, and which in turn should maximise the impact of fiscal stimulus and an anticipated lockdown-savings-fuelled consumer spending spree. Given the outsized US fiscal stimulus and associated impact on yield differentials, this backdrop may not be the dollar bearish environment it was once thought it would be.
Today – BoE’s Haldane, RBA’s Lowe, Fed’s Kaplan & US supply – $120b of 3-, 10- and 30-yr US Treasuries being auctioned this week – last week’s “woeful” 7-yr auction saw yields double from the last auction.
Biggest (FX) Mover @ (07:30 GMT) GBPUSD (+0.42%) Big spike at 07:00. Moved higher following support at 1.3800 yesterday, now breached R1 at 1.3857, R2 at 1.3893. Faster MAs aligned and trending higher, RSI 60 and rising, MACD histogram & signal line aligned higher and attempting to break 0 line. Stochs into OB zone. H1 ATR 0.0020, Daily ATR 0.0115.
Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.
Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.
Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.

Stuart Cowell
Head Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

Date : 10th March 2021.

Market Update – March 10 – USD holds ahead of key auction.

Market News Today – USD holds its bid, big bounce back from Nasdaq (+3.69%, AAPL +4.06%, TSLA +19.64%, NIO +17.45%), Yields consolidate around 1.55%. Stimulus bill will pass into law later today. Nikkei closed flat. Overnight – Chinese CPI & PPI better than expected, RBA Lowe – would not say AUD is overvalued, but “comfortable” lower than last week. Gold bounced from key level ($1685), USOil drifted lower towards $63.00, BTC hit 55K.

USDIndex – Fell from 92.50 yesterday – today PP at 92.15

EUR – Tested back to 1.1900 yesterday – but back down again now at PP 1.1880
JPY – Retreats from 9-mth high at 109.20. Now 108.80 (PP 108.70, R1 109.00
GBP – Test of 1.3800 held again yesterday and rallied to 1.3915. Now at PP 1.3870

AUD – under 0.7700 to 0.7685 (PP) – s1 0.7645, R1 0.7750
NZD – rose from test of 0.7100 yesterday to -0.7180. – Trades at 0.7145
CAD – rose from test of 1.2600 (S1) to 1.2660 now. PP 1.2630, r1 1.2690.
CHF – Holds back at 0.9300 after rally to 0.9375 yesterday – PP 0.9325.

BTC – held $50k yesterday, has rallied to R3 at $54,400. PP today at $50,600

GOLD – rallied from below important May & June lows at $1685 yesterday to 1720 earlier.
Trades at $1715 now.
USOil – down again to test $63.50 and the 200Hr MA – S1 $63.00. PP $64.45

USA500 – +54.09 (+1.42%) 3875. – USA500 FUTS now at 3860. – 20SMA (3878). 50SMA 3850

Today – US CPI (13:30 GMT), BoC Rate decision (15:00), Weekly Oil Inventories and – key today – Auction of $38 billion US 10-year Treasuries (18:00).



Biggest (FX) Mover @ (07:30 GMT) AUDUSD (-0.45%) Moved lower following LOWE comments. Under 0.7700 from 0.7820 highs yesterday, under PP (0.7865) earlier. Faster MAs aligned and lower but turning neutral, RSI 48 and neutral, MACD histogram & signal line aligned lower and attempting to break 0 line. Stochs rising from OS zone. H1 ATR 0.0012, Daily ATR 0.0098.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.
Stuart Cowell
Head Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

Date : 11th March 2021.

Market Update – March 11 – USD & Yields cool.

Market News Today – USD slips – Core inflation missed (0.1%) and 10-yr auction was filled at 1.52%, better than expected. DOW closed at new ATH (+1.46%; 32,297) – Nasdaq flat – Stimulus bill passed – $1400 check to those on less than $75K and extra $300/week for unemployed. BOC – no change until “inflation objective is sustainably achieved”. Asia (China & SK rallied over 1.5%), Nikkei +0.6%. Huge Oil inventory build (13.8m vs 3.0m) shrugged off – tests $65 again.

The USDIndex has posted a six-day low at 91.68, extending the retreat from the 15-week high that was seen on Tuesday at 92.50. EURUSD concurrently lifted to a five-day high at 1.1947. Cable edged out a one-week high at 1.3954. The Australian and New Zealand Dollars saw the biggest magnitude of gains against the Greenback. AUDUSD hit a one-week peak at 0.7779. USDCAD pegged a two-day low at 1.2590.

A second principal theme in the currency market today has been yen underperformance. USDJPY, despite the broader softness in the Dollar, rose to an intraday peak at 108.81, extending a rebound from yesterday’s low at 108.33. EURJPY and AUDJPY posted two-week highs, while GBPJPY hit a fresh 35-month high and CADJPY came within 10 pips of the 28-month high that was seen earlier in the week. The Yen is registering as the weakest of the main currencies on the year so far. BoJ Governor Kuroda said last week that the yield curve needs to remain “stably low,” though said policy will be assessed at the upcoming March policy review. The rootedness of JGB yields, with the 10-year yield being pinned near to 0% under the yield curve control policy, has seen differentials versus other sovereign yields tip markedly out of the currency’s favour this year.

Today – ECB policy announcement, US JOLTS & Weekly claims, OPEC MOMR & US 30-year bonds.

Biggest (FX) Mover @ (07:30 GMT) AUDJPY (+0.71%) Big move from 83.50 lows yesterday, over 84.00 today and R3 at 84.45. Faster MAs aligned and higher, RSI 82.6 OB but still rising, MACD histogram & signal line aligned higher but looking stretched. Stochs 92 and OB from breaking 84.00 earlier. H1 ATR 0.1320, Daily ATR 0.9125.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.

Stuart Cowell
Head Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

Date : 12th March 2021.

Market Update – March 12 – USD Rallies, JPY Pressured.

Market News Today – The USD dips and then finds a bid. Stimulus Bill signed by Biden – targets July 4 as “normalcy”. Stocks closed higher (Nasdaq +2.5%), Weekly Claims close to November low (712k), 30-yr auction filled at 2.3%, again better than feared. ECB will quicken asset purchases but not increase them. Overnight Asian markets firmer; Nikkei +1.73%. German CPI inline and UK data dump biased to the upside.

Against this backdrop, the USDIndex reversed most of yesterday’s declines in posting a high at 91.81, up from the eight-day low at 91.36. EURUSD concurrently ebbed to a low at 1.1935, down from yesterday’s eight-day high at 1.1990. Cable dipped back to the mid 1.3900s after briefly lifting above 1.4000 for the first time since Thursday last week, despite UK yields rising by a similar magnitude to US yields.

USDJPY has been the biggest beneficiary of the firmer dollar, with the pair rising by over 0.6% today in posting a high at 109.17, which is 8 pips shy of the nine-month high that was seen earlier in the week. Yen crosses gained, with many hitting new major trend highs. EURJPY posted a 25-month high, while GBPJPY clawed out a new 25-month peak, and CADJPY a 28-month high, for instance. The rootedness of JGB yields has lately been seeing differentials has tipped marked out of the yen’s favour. The risk of further lurching spikes in Treasury yields are high with fiscal stimulus about to start being unleashed and as the US economy reopens. One argument is that the shear size of the stimulus, at 9% of GDP, dwarfs the output gap, which is near 3%. And note, the does not include the infrastructure bill that the Democrats are working on, which is likely to be vast — Goldman Sachs is anticipating it to be at least $2 tln, and potentially double that (over a 10-year period). Also, assuming Covid vaccinations allow reopening of hard-hit sectors, the prevailing deficiency on the supply-side of the economy should start to evaporate. Such as scenario would be bullish of the Dollar, although raising the possibility of eventual overheating.

Today – US PPI, Canadian jobs report, UoM Consumer Sentiment & Inflation expectations.


Biggest (FX) Mover @ (07:30 GMT) NZDUSD (+0.46%) Moved lower this morning from 0.7230 and then breached 200MA & PP at 0.7200. S1 at 0.7171. Faster MAs aligned lower, RSI 36.7 and falling, MACD histogram & signal line aligned lower, histogram testing 0 line. Stochs OS and still falling, MFI testing OS zone. H1 ATR 0.0011, Daily ATR 0.0090.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.

Stuart Cowell
Head Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

Date : 15th March 2021.

Events to Look Out this Week.

Welcome to our weekly agenda, our briefing of all the key financial events globally. The week ahead is expected to be a massive one, as three of the major Central Banks – the Fed, BoJ and BoE – will announce their rate decision and hold a policy press conference.
Monday – 15 March 2021

• Eurogroup Meeting
• Retail Sales (CNY, GMT 02:00) – The overall Chinese Retail sales should spike in January at 32% y/y from 4.6% y/y last month. China was the only major economy that grew last year despite challenges posed by the Covid-19 pandemic. It reported a growth of 2.3% in 2020, but the performance across sectors was uneven with exports staying resilient while consumption has continued to lag.

Tuesday – 16 March 2021

• RBA Meeting Minutes (AUD, GMT 00:30) – No surprises from the RBA is expected. The bank, after leaving interest rates unchanged, as had been anticipated, unexpectedly extended its QE program following its February board meeting. The statement said the outlook for the global economy has improved over recent months thanks to vaccine developments. It warned, however, that the expected recovery is likely to “remain bumpy and uneven” and “remains dependent on the health situation and on significant fiscal and monetary support”. The central scenario is for the Australian economy to expand 3 1/2 percent this year as well as expected to “return to its end-2019 level by the middle of this year”. Spare capacity is likely to stay for some time. Inflation and wages growth are expected to pick up from weak levels, but to remain “below 2% over the next couple of years”.
• Economic Sentiment (EUR, GMT 10:00) – German March ZEW economic sentiment is seen to have declined at 65.1 compared to 69.6.
• Retail Sales (USD, GMT 12:30) – A February pull-back is seen in the retail sales headline and ex-auto component after outsized January gains, while business inventories climbed in January after a boost in the December level. A -2.0% February retail sales headline drop is expected with a -1.8% ex-autos decrease, following respective January jumps of 5.3% and 5.9%.

Wednesday – 17 March 2021

• Consumer Price Index (EUR, GMT 01:30) – HICP inflation held steady at 0.9% y/y in January, as expected. The number reflects diverging developments across the four big Eurozone countries, which highlights the challenge the central bank will be facing as economies emerge from the pandemic and demand bounces back. Core inflation dropped back to 1.1%. Hence no change is expected for February’s data.
• BoC Consumer Price Index (CAD, GMT 12:30) – Canada’s CPI accelerated to a 1.0% growth rate (y/y, nsa) in January from the 0.7% rate of expansion in December. For February the overall inflation is expected to slow down slightly to 0.9% y/y. The CPI measure remains quite tame, running at the bottom of the BoC’s 1-3% target band. The BoC has maintained their commitment to maintain accommodative policy for an extended period of time.
• Interest Rate Decision and Press Conference (USD, GMT 18:00 – 18:30) – Fed Chair Powell will give a big thank you to the ECB after the Bank announced it will step up its asset purchases “significantly” next quarter to help steady rate markets. Like the Fed, the central banks are working to prevent a tightening of financial conditions, especially after the February 25 spike in rates that caused global shockwaves. But the ECB action and frontloading PEPP purchase was much more than the jawboning that the markets were anticipating. The FOMC won’t have that luxury, however, as it meets next week. We will look for a more upbeat assessment on growth conditions which would normally pressure Treasury yields higher. However, the Fed will again emphasize the downside risks and stress that there is still a long row to hoe before accommodation is removed. And of course it will add that it will remain accommodative until its goals are met. And now with the ECB doing more of the heavy lifting to contain the upside in yields near term via bond buying, Treasury rates may be held in check (relatively) too. On inflation, Lagarde also warned of a spike in prices said she will “see through” any increase because the medium term outlook is subdued. Powell has and will deliver the same message that policymakers are expecting a jump in y/y inflation rates, due largely to base effects, as well as the natural impacts of a likely surge in spending as the economy reopens, with some likely bottlenecks from supply chain disruptions.

Thursday – 18 March 2021

• Interest Rate Decision and Press Conference (GBP, GMT 12:00) – The BoE delivered a relatively upbeat assessment of the outlook, even though it still flagged downside risks. Central bankers may still want to add negative rates to the toolkit, but it is pretty clear that they don’t expect to go there in the current situation. The BoE is expected to remain committed to not tightening policy until there is clear evidence that significant progress is being made in eliminating spare capacity and achieving the 2% inflation target sustainably.

Friday – 19 March 2021

• Interest Rate Decision and Press Conference (JPY, GMT 03:00) – The Bank of Japan meets on March 19. No change is expected to the main policy settings. In January, BoJ Governor Kuroda said uncertainty remains high for now and the risks for the economy and inflation are to the downside. Against that background he stressed that the BoJ won’t hesitate to add easing if needed, but also said the BoJ will need to consider the cumulative effects of the policy measures, including side effects. Notably, the reflation trade lifted the yields on the 10-year JGB (Japanese government bond) to a two year high of 0.115%. But the rate move is unlikely to prompt any action by the BoJ as it was driven by the market, tracking the general reflation trade that has lifted yields globally so far in 2021.
• Retail Sales (CAD, GMT 12:30) – A January decline is seen in the retail sales and ex-auto component. A -2.5% m/m retail sales drop is expected with a -2.0% m/m ex-autos decrease, following December’s -3.4% m/m and 4.1% m/m.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.


Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or raeliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

Date : 16th March 2021.

FX Update – March 16 – Sterling the weakest today.

GBPUSD, H1
Currencies have mostly been trading with stability amid a benign backdrop of buoyant stock markets and softer yields as markets anticipate dovish guidance from the Fed and tomorrow’s conclusion of the FOMC meeting, which begins later today. This is despite the $1.9 tln fiscal stimulus which is being implemented on top of a better than anticipated economic rebound, though the Fed, looking beyond the upcoming burst of inflation caused by base effects on the year-on-year price comparison, will point to spare capacity in the labour market.

One side-theme of note today has been pound weakness, with Cable pushing nearly 0.5% lower in pegging a one-week low at 1.3807 and EURGBP rising by a similar magnitude in posting an eight-day high at 0.8636. This came after BoE Governor Bailey said that inflation will remain below the 2% target threshold even after the expected jump due to year-on-year base effects and economic reopening. Bailey also affirmed that the central bank will continue with its QE program for the remainder of 2021. The 10-year gilt yield nudged under 0.790% in the wake of his remarks.

Elsewhere, both EURUSD and USDJPY traded in narrow ranges, respectively above and below their recent lows and highs. AUDUSD drifted lower, though remained above Monday’s low. USDCAD lifted, but remained below yesterday’s rebound high, which was seen after a 37-month low was clocked at 1.2441. The pair had been weighed on by Friday’s strong employment report out of Canada, which sparked a narrowing in the US over Canadian yield differential. A drop in oil prices subsequently countervailed this by weakening the Loonie.

In other news today, BoJ Governor Kuroda said there was no need to change the yield curve control framework, and that it was vital to keep the yield curve low and stable. The Japanese central bank reviews policy later this week, announcing on Friday. US President Biden said that he would not improve relations with China until Beijing ceases its economic coercion of Australia. A renewed rise in Covid cases is being seen in much of Europe, outside the UK, which is being driven, somewhat ironically, by the highly transmissible UK variant. Goldman Sachs are forecasting the 10-year T-note yield to rise to 2%, remarking that this will be digestible for equity markets, but first 1.75% needs to be breached; currently it’s exchanging hands below 1.60% at 1.593%.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

ant to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.
Stuart Cowell
Head Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

Date : 17th March 2021.

Yields nudged higher – Cautious ahead of FOMC.


Action remains mixed and subdued ahead of today’ s FOMC results.

The Treasury yield has lifted 1.2 bp to 1.63% as markets position for the FOMC announcement, which will take centre stage today. Markets are preparing for a less dovish tone against the background of a rapidly proceeding vaccination program and the prospect of a swift re-opening of the economy. In Europe the BoE is set to announce its policy decision tomorrow and while Governor Bailey is expected to offer some reassurance on policy, he seemed pretty sanguine on the trend higher in yields in comments from Monday. In the Eurozone meanwhile investors saw little evidence that the ECB has actually stepped up asset purchases in Monday’s data and seem to be testing the central bank’s resolve to keep spreads in.

Headlines:

• Slow progress of the vaccination program is adding pressure to the sentiment, as the temporary suspension of the AstraZeneca vaccine clearly isn’t helping. Officials may feel they have the need to act on even the slightest suspicion of problems, but the move could well backfire and play into the hands of the anti-vaccine movement, rather than offering reassurance that officials are keeping to very strict health guidelines.
• Australia (Queensland state) reports 4 severe reactions to AstraZeneca vaccination.
• Stock markets traded within a narrow range ahead of the FOMC. – GER30 and UK100 futures are currently down -0.06% and -0.04%, with US futures also marginally lower.
• A sharp narrowing in Japan’s trade surplus thanks to a slump in exports underpinned JGBs and saw the JPN225 close with a -0.2% loss.
• Reports of supply shortages from companies such as Samsung and Honda added to the cautious tone in stock markets.
• US Secretary of State Antony Blinken has released a report identifying 24 China and Hong Kong officials whose actions have reduced Hong Kong’s autonomy.
• Japan will raise tariffs on US beef imports for 30 days.
• Iran enriching uranium with new advanced machine type at underground plant – IAEA.

Forex Market

JPY – lifted to 109.20, unable to break 4-day resistance.
EUR – 4th day dropped currently at 1.1892.
GBP – steadied to 1.3877-1.3930 area.
AUD – steadied to low 0.77 area.
CAD & USOil –fell to a fresh three year low at 1.2437 even as WTI crude oil gyrated between $64 and $65 after pulling back from $66.38 yesterday.
VIX – Appreciated by more than 20% in the open, just a breath below 20-day SMA.

Today: Today’s data calendar is pretty quiet, with only the final reading for Eurozone February inflation. The Fed concludes its meeting today and announces its decision and releases its quarterly forecasts at 18:00 GMT.

FOMC preview: The meeting will be followed by Fed Chair Powell’s press conference at 14:30 ET. The focus will be on the new views on the recovery and of course policy as reflected in the SEP and dot plot. The statement should show an improved outlook on the economy, but a still cautious stance on the labor market. Look for reiteration that inflation continues to run below target. In his press conference Chair Powell will acknowledge the run up in prices but will again say it’s expected to be a transitory blip. We suspect he will try to discourage worries that the run up in yields will initiate the start to tapering sooner than later. Remember the Fed has indicated it will begin trimming QE before it begins boosting rates. So it could be a difficult dance if the dots show more rate hikes in 2022 than the 1 from December as the markets would quickly price in Fed action for later this year.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.

Stuart Cowell
Head Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

Date : 18th March 2021.

Dollar on Bid | 18 March 2021.

The market cheered as Fed Chair Powell assured that there would not be a pre-emptive tightening. Yields pulled back from session highs initially, leaving modest gains on the longer dated issues and pulling short and medium term yields underwater. Fed Powell stressed that the Fed will clearly telegraph to the markets before it begins to taper QE purchases. Wall Street rallied.

For bonds the initial relief over the FOMC’s assurances on the rate outlook was short lived and Treasury yields started to move higher again, with bonds across Asia also under pressure as the optimistic economic outlook for the US economy revived reflation trades.

Headlines:

• The increasingly optimistic growth outlook for the US contrasts with concerns that the much slower vaccine rollout in the EU will delay the recovery in the Eurozone. GER30 is up 0.8%, versus a 0.4% rise in the UK100.
• Fresh reports that the Bank of Japan is considering widening the trading range around the 10-year target added to pressure on JGBs as the BoJ starts its 2-day meeting.
• Australian shares dragged down by technology and healthcare stocks.
• An economic contraction in the final quarter of 2020 sent New Zealand’s benchmark index to its biggest drop in two weeks. GDP at -1% q/q for Q4.
• The JPN225 was up 1.01% at the close and the Topix managed to clear the 2000 mark for the first time since 1991.
• Australia Feb. employment change +88.7K (vs expected +30K) & unemployment rate 5.8% (vs expected 6.3%).
• A high-level diplomatic meeting taking place today, in Alaska between China and the US; China has outlined its hopes for an easing of tensions as a result of the meeting but also expressed low expectations.

Forex Market

Dollar on bid as Yields rally

JPY – spiked to 109.29 ahead of EU open.
EUR – pulled back to 1.1948 from 1.1988 highs.
GBP – lifted to 1.3993 as the focus turns to the BoE, which is also expected to signal a strengthened growth outlook, while keeping policy settings stable.
AUD – steadied close to 20-day SMA.
CAD – dropped sharply as Powell removed lingering fears that the Fed would begin to remove accommodation before 2023, leaving the pair at 1.2365 from 1.2490 ahead of the announcement.
USOil –drops for 5th straight day after US inventories rise. The EIA inventory data showed a 2.4 mln bbl rise in crude stocks.
Gold – rose 0.35% to $1,755.47 per ounce by 01:19 GMT, as the Fed’s pledge to keep rates low and worries about inflation pushed up the precious metals. But currently lower on stronger Dollar.

Today: The focus turns to the BoE, which is also expected to signal a strengthened growth outlook, while keeping policy settings stable. The calendar also includes Eurozone trade numbers as well as comments from ECB President Lagarde.

BoE Preview: The bank is widely anticipated to leave policy unchanged by unanimous vote at the nine-member committee meeting, which will leave the repo rate at its historic low of 0.10% and the QE total at GBP 875 bln. Some focus will be on the statement and minutes, though these aren’t likely to be too interesting so soon after last month revising its quarterly forecasts. Nonetheless, it will be interesting to see the policymakers’ take on the transition afoot in markets — the spike in Gilt and global sovereign yields and the tumble and rotation in global stock markets. Most likely the guidance will be sanguine given the basis of improving global growth prospects, and the effective Covid vaccination program in the UK, juxtaposed to the level of spare capacity in the domestic economy.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.

Stuart Cowell
Head Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

Date : 23rd March 2021.

US Update – March 23 – New Homes, Richmond Fed, Powell & Yellen Testify.

EURUSD, H1
US new home sales plunged -18.2% in February to 775,000, weaker than expected. Sales were up 3.2% to 948,000 in January and 7.2% to 919,000 (was 885,000) in December. The largely weather-related hit breaks a string of 8 straight months of sales at a pace that was the strongest since the 1.016 million in September 2006. Sales declined in all four regions, largely on the polar vortex that put much of the country in a deep freeze. The Midwest led the slide with a -37.5% slump, along with the -14.7% decline in the South, the -11.6% drop in the Northeast, and the -16.4% tumble in the West. So it wasn’t just the weather. The month’s supply of homes jumped to 4.8 from 3.8 (was 4.0). The median sales price slipped -1.1% to $349,400 versus the -1.0% decline to $353,200 ($346,400) in January. The appreciation in home prices slowed slightly to 5.3% y/y versus the prior 7.4% y/y (was 5.3% y/y) clip. The record high was hit in December at $356,600. The data follows yesterday’s big miss for existing home sales which declined to 6.22 million in February from 6.66 million in January.

More positive news is that the March reading of the Richmond Fed manufacturing index rose a significant 3 points to 17. The index was steady at 14 in February after falling -5 ticks to that level in January. The index is down from the 29 reading from October which is the all-time high. The employment component was unchanged at 22 from 22, with the wage gauge at 26 from 32. New orders were also unchanged at 10 from 10. The prices paid index was 6.15% from 4.47%. The prices received component was 3.52% from 2.83%. The 6-month outlook index was 28 from 22, well off the 57 from July that ties the record high from February 2002. The future jobs index was 34 from 36 with wages at 57 from 49. The future new orders index was 24 from 15. The price outlook showed prices paid at 4.66% from 3.78%, and prices received at 3.57% from 2.98%.

The Dollar moved slightly higher following the data, which saw new home sales miss the mark, while the Richmond Fed index rose more than expected. EURUSD dipped to two-week lows of 1.1861 from 1.1875, while USDJPY edged up from 108.63 to 108.71. Wall Street remains narrowly mixed, while yields are down on the session.

Next up, and potentially more significant, is Chair Powell’s first of 2 days of testimony, along with Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen, on the quarterly CARES Act report before the House Financial Services & Banking Committees.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.


Stuart Cowell
Head Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

Date : 24th March 2021.

Market Update – March 24 – Better PMI data for UK & Eurozone.



EURGBP, H1
Preliminary March UK PMI survey data came in much stronger than expected, with the headline composite reading rising to a seven-month high of 56.6, up from 49.6 in February. The median forecast had been for a much more modest improvement, to 50.6. The manufacturing PMI headline came in at a 40-month high at 57.9, improving from 55.1 in the month prior. The services PMI rose to a seven-month high at 56.8, advancing sharply from 49.5, with the sector expanding again after four consecutive months of contraction. This is the first month since last September that both the manufacturing and services sectors have seen a rise in new orders.

A rebound in sales into easing lockdown measures, which has come on the back of a so-far successful and rapid Covid vaccination program, has driven the improvement. Consumer confidence increased and the survey highlighted a surge in demand for residential property services. It is also notable that service sector activity overtook manufacturing sector activity for the first time in the pandemic era, and the survey also evidenced the release of pent-up demand, with businesses rebuilding capacity in response to rising consumer demand.

The data showed the first increase in staffing numbers in the private economy since February 2020, with the rate of job creation at the highest in almost two years. Optimism about the 12 months ahead rose for a third consecutive month, and stood at the highest level seen since the index began in July 2012. Input costs spiked by the most in over four years, which was accompanied by the highest rate of output charge inflation in over three years.

Earlier Eurozone Composite PMI was also back in expansion territory, with the overall reading lifting to an 8-month high of 52.5 from 48.8 in the previous month. The breakdown still reflects a two-speed recovery, with the manufacturing sector leading the way. The Manufacturing Output PMI as well as the general Manufacturing PMI were at record highs in March with readings of 63.0 and 57.9 respectively. The Services PMI remained in contraction territory at 48.8, but this was up from 45.7 in the previous month and indeed a 7-month high. Germany reported the first expansion of activity for six months, which ties in with the cautious re-opening of activity in March, although given that the government already signalled an extended “quiet period” over Easter as case numbers rise, the risk of a set-back is high. The manufacturing sector meanwhile is bursting at the seams, with the backlog of orders now rising again, particularly in Germany. The developments are also good news for the labour market, with Markit reporting that manufacturers saw headcounts rise at a rate not seen since August 2018 and that the services sector reported the largest rise in employment since the start of the pandemic.




Overall a very good report, that suggests the first quarter of the year was less weak than feared and that even in the services sector things are starting to look a bit better. In the very short term there may be a setback, but with the EU procurement scheme ensuring that vaccines are pretty evenly distributed across the EU/EEA area, even if national rollouts differ, the area remains set to bounce back in the second half of the year.




EURGBP spiked to 0.8645 earlier following the surprisingly weak UK CPI data, subsequently retraced to under today’s pivot point at 0.8617, before settling over 0.8620. The 20-day moving average at 0.8600 is the key support level in the higher timeframes, with immediate resistance at 0.8700 and the upper Bollinger Band.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Stuart Cowell
Head Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

Date : 25th March 2021.

EURUSD in the spotlight.


The US Dollar has posted fresh highs in a continued divergence from US Treasury yields, which have remained broadly stable over the last day. Global stock and commodity markets remain in turbulent waters, which has been maintaining a safe haven bid for the Greenback.

The souring in relations between China and western nations this week remains a concern, the latest development being news that the US securities regulator is taking measures that would de-list foreign companies from US exchanges if they fail to comply with US auditing standards, alongside a requirement to disclose any government affiliations. It is widely understood that such a move would single out Chinese companies the most. Also on the worry list are the new lockdown measures being taken in much of Europe, disruptions in vaccination supplies, and a possible US tax hike. There are also concerns about new SARS-Cov2 variants that are both more transmissible and resistant to current vaccines, and although there is a lack of hard evidence that this is becoming a major problem as yet, it is the principal justification behind the UK and other governments’ decisions to greatly limit international travel.

Against this backdrop, the USDIndex hits its highest level since November 2020, at 92.69.

As safe-haven trades amid another wave of virus cases and more restrictive lockdowns have kept demand underpinned, especially with central banks pledging ongoing stimulus, the key asset to be closely watched today will be the USDIndex but especially EURUSD.



The US Dollar momentum may be pausing for breath now but it could quickly resume if EURUSD breaks below the 1.1800 level. In general Euro and European stocks are still struggling after a mixed session in Asia overnight. A break of 1.1800 could turn crucial for the asset as it could strengthen buying pressure as it is a key psychological level, but on the other hand, markets’ agenda are not in the favour of the Eurozone, while we are just a day before the end of the week and only 4 working days prior to the end of the month and the end of the Quarter.

That said, the choppy trading so far today reveals the unwillingness of the bulls to leave the 1.1800 unguarded, however this along with the end of month and end of quarter flows might find large stops below it. Hence if the bearish bias strengthens drifting the asset below this key level then we could see EURUSD drifting further down, with next Support at 1.1740 and 1.1700. Because of this we might see the US Dollar rally richen to ride the current wave of risk aversion ahead of the weekend.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

Date : 26th March 2021.

Market Update – March 26 – USD & Equities higher as risk taking seeps back.


Market News Today – USD gains on safe-haven & better econ. news, EUR & JPY pressured, Sterling, AUD & NZD higher. US stock markets higher (+0.5%), Nikkei closed +1.56%. Quarter end rebalancing & risk seeping back into markets. Good US data (Claims at 1-year lows (under 700k – this week last year 3.2 million), Q4 GDP upgraded to +4.3% and all the Fedspeak cool with the path for inflation. Gold$1730, USOil $59.60 (The Evergreen is not going anywhere soon – $10bn of global trade held up). Overnight – PBOC sees 6% growth for China in 2021, CPI in Tokyo ticks higher and UK Retail sales in line at 2.1%. Biden – 100 million vaccines in 42 days wants 200 million in 100 days, EU cases and vaccine problems persist – leaders disunited over action.

Investor sentiment improved on the last day of the week and Asian stock markets were broadly higher, after a positive close on Wall Street yesterday. Vaccine optimism outbalanced reports of a climb in global Covid-19 case numbers and strengthened confidence in a recovery of global economic activity later in the year. Chinese markets bounced after being weighed down yesterday by fears of escalating US-China tensions. Stable US yields also helped somewhat. The US 10-year rate is currently down -0.1 bp at 1.63%, after another lacklustre (7-yr) auction yesterday. Topix and Nikkei closed with gains of 1.5% and 1.6% respectively and the ASX lifted 0.5%. Hang Seng and CSI 300 also closed up 1.7% and 2.2%, respectively.

In FX markets the Yen weakened and USDJPY lifted to 109.27, although the Dollar fell back against most other currencies. AUD and NZD were supported. The EUR managed to recover some ground against the Dollar and is currently trading at 1.1783. Cable lifting to 1.3755 following the rebound in UK retail sales, which lifted 2.4% m/m in February after falling -8.7% m/m at the start of the year, is adding to the positive mood. The annual rate improved to -1.1% y/y from -3.7% y/y.

Today – German IFO, US PCE & core PCE, personal income & spending, Uni. of Michigan (final).



Biggest (FX) Mover @ (07:30 GMT) AUDJPY (+0.68%) Volatile week continues, big rally from 82.50 lows yesterday. Rallied to test R2 at 83.37. Faster MAs remain aligned higher, RSI 69 and rising to test OB zone, MACD histogram & signal line aligned higher and both back over 0 line for first time since 18th. Stochs OB but still rising. H1 ATR 0.1228, Daily ATR 0.7285.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Stuart Cowell
Head Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

Date : 29th March 2021.

Market Update – March 29 – Oil gapped down on open.


Market News Today – US equity futures are selling off, led by a more than 1% decline in the USA100 future, amid reports of USD 20 bln Block trades, selling of Chinese tech giants and the US media firm ViacomCBS. Asian stock markets have traded mixed and Japanese indices managed to move higher. JPN225 closed with a gain of 0.57%. The ASX was down -0.36% at the close. European futures are outperforming, but GER30 and UK100 are still down -0.07% and 0.21% respectively. Surging virus numbers in countries such as France weigh on confidence in Eurozone economies, which so far have had relatively relaxed virus restrictions. The UK meanwhile is finally easing its very strict measures, against the background of a successful vaccination campaign.

In FX markets the Yen strengthened and USDJPY fell back to 109.46, although the Dollar strengthened against most other currencies. AUD and NZD began to hand back small Friday gains. AUD slipped along with Australian shares, weighed by losses in technology shares, as Brisbane announcing a fresh three-day lockdown raised fears of a slow economic recovery. The EUR remains down against the Dollar and is currently trading at 1.1777, driven more by concerns over the weakening outlook for growth in the Eurozone in light of rising COVID cases. Cable dropped to 1.3755 (200-hour SMA).

Today – Data releases today focus on UK money supply and consumer credit data.



Biggest (FX) Mover @ (07:30 GMT) USOIL (-2.25%) Oil prices dropped at $59.55 after the Ever Given was finally refloated, although it doesn’t seem to be clear yet when the Suez Canal will be open again. Faster MAs remain aligned lower, RSI 45 and MACD histogram & signal line clashed without clear indication yet whether this implies consolidation or support. H1 ATR 0.55, Daily ATR 2.62.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

Date : 31st March 2021.

Market Update – March 31.

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Market News Today – Treasuries are closing the quarter pretty much as they began, with the belly and long end of the market losing ground. The improving outlooks on growth, fostering a hefty reflation trade, have been boosting yields. The market has also been pricing in inflationary pressures. The 10-year was 1.7 bps cheaper at 1.72%, though rates were off early highs of 1.774% and 1.433% respectively on short covering and positioning into month- and quarter-end.

Currently they are posting fractional gains as markets await more details on stimulus from US President Biden, who is set to speak on infrastructure today. Elsewhere the details on the fallout from Archegos’ collapse weighed on sentiment overnight, and after European markets closed broadly higher yesterday, we are likely to see a more cautious tone, ahead of key data.

In FX markets the Yen weakened and USDJPY lifted to 110.85, although the Dollar strengthened against most other currencies, with USDIndex hitting 93.45. AUD and NZD steadied at March lows. The EUR rebounded on EU open at 1.1725 but remains off 1.1800. Cable dropped to 1.3755 (200-hour SMA). Oil prices remain supported on expectations OPEC+ will keep a lid on output, above 50-DMA for a 4th day. Gold remains low at 1,676.



Today – Data releases today include German jobless numbers and preliminary Eurozone inflation data. The former is likely to show a decline in the sa jobless reading, as parts of the economy re-opened, while the latter is seen jumping sharply higher on the back of base effects, although the headline should remain firmly below the ECB’s implicit target of 2%. The final reading for UK Q4 GDP numbers and US ADP are due today, and President Biden is also due to speak.



Biggest (FX) Mover @ (07:30 GMT) CADJPY (+0.54%) The asset prices spiked at 87.86 reaching R2 , extending the 6 day rally and recovering nearly all March losses. Fast MAs remain are flattened for now, with RSI turning lower below 70, however MACD histogram & signal line are bullishly crossed. These suggest near term consolidation or even pullback with the overall outlook holding positive. H1 ATR 0.126, Daily ATR 0.65.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

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Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

Date : 1st April 2021.

Market Update – April 1st.


Market News Today – Stocks have moved broadly higher as investors continue to focus on the recovery. Hence stocks closed Q1 mostly firmer, with a new record high on the USA500, rising 0.46% to 13,246. The USA100 climbed 1.54% to 13,246 as big tech recovered some poise and helped the index post a 0.4% gain on the month. While for the first three months of the year, the USA30 was up 7.76% as reflation/reopening trades gathered steam. Risk appetite has been supported by vaccines, and now by expectations of more stimulus with President Biden announcing another $2.25 tln infrastructure deal.

Tightened restrictions resulting from virus flareups in some parts of the world were overlooked for now, but have the potential to limit the rise in markets that have already come a very long way. Yields have also risen sharply and the Bloomberg Barclays index tracking US government bonds, reported the worst quarterly performance since 1980.

In Europe, Eurozone bond markets closed higher and stocks struggled, with dovish comments from ECB’s Lagarde helping to underpin peripheral markets. The central bank head stressed once again that monetary policy will remain very accommodative for some time to come, which helped to counterbalance the uptick in inflation.

In FX markets, after hitting fresh near 5-month highs overnight, the USDIndex lost some ground through in NY and Asia trade falling to 92.99 lows, but USDIndex is back on 93.30 area again this morning. Profit taking appeared to be a motive, despite mostly better data. The USDJPY was little changed at 110.71, with both gaining against most other currencies. AUD meanwhile was the main underperformer. The EUR and GBP are firmed holding into two-week low territory. The USOIL is at $59.61.



Today – For today, the focus will be on confidence numbers again, with the final round of manufacturing PMIs, which are likely to confirm a further acceleration in the pace of expansion. Attention is on US Friday’s jobs report.

Biggest (FX) Mover @ (07:30 GMT) AUDCAD (-0.71%) The asset drifted to 0.7530 breaking a 3-month support level which seems also to be a neckline of a head and shoulder formation. Fast MAs aligned lower, with RSI turning higher in the OS area, however MACD histogram & signal line are negatively configured. H1 ATR 0.00125, Daily ATR 0.00696.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.