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Daily Fundamental ForexTime ( FXTM )

Oil: Stuck around $40 with nowhere to go








Later today, OPEC+ is set for a meeting to evaluate the state of the global market. And the outlook isn’t particularly inspiring for Oil bulls.

Since bouncing out from under the $20/bbl in April, Brent Oil’s recovery has plateaued, even as it keeps its head above the psychologically-important $40/bbl line. Still, the MACD clearly points to waning momentum, with Oil prices having stuck to a sideways range since September. The FXTM Trader's Sentiments also appears rather evenly split, with 52 percent net long on this asset.





Likewise, Crude oil prices are seeing similar fortunes, drifting sideways, even as it consolidates around its 50-day simple moving average. Although the International Energy Agency estimates that the demand for oil worldwide has been restored to 94 percent of pre-pandemic levels, markets are clearly not convinced.



Recall back in April, OPEC and its allies had agreed to aggressively lower their collective output in order to rebalance global markets. From the 9.7 million barrels per day (bpd) that were removed starting May, those production cuts were set to be eased by about 3.9 million bpd at the start of 2021, which is in just 74 days. Their initial hopes that global demand would’ve recovered sufficiently by now to warrant restoring more Oil supply into the world has clearly been decimated by the pandemic’s refusal to go quietly into the night.

As the OPEC+ Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee meet on Monday, the alliance will be under pressure to delay their supply ramp-up, given how the global economy is still faltering in its post-pandemic recovery. The total number of Covid-19 cases is nearing the 40 million mark, and major Western economies are still, till this day, battling the coronavirus’s spread within their own borders. While eschewing the nationwide lockdowns that were commonplace during the first half of the year, more targeted restrictions still impede economic activity. With schools shut, work-from-home orders in place, and little allowance for social activities, such measures erode the world’s demand for Oil. Such persistent demand-side concerns ensure that the upside for Oil prices remain capped for the time being.

At least China is a bright spark in the global economy. The world’s second largest economy grew by 4.9 percent in Q3, while its industrial production and retail sales for September exceeded market expectations. During its Golden Week holidays earlier this month, that were about 425 million trips made across China within a four-day period. However, more major economies need to follow China’s lead and keep the coronavirus in check, before Oil prices can see a sustainable lift.

Although no decision is expected out of OPEC+ until December 1, the signs are already there that this alliance of major Oil producers may have to keep their output levels suppressed for longer if they are to retain hope that prices can climb higher from current levels. Until there is a vaccine that can help speed up the global economic recovery, perhaps Oil bulls would be content sitting off to the sidelines in the interim.




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Daily Fundamental ForexTime ( FXTM )

New record high for FXTM Social Media Index






Amid the ongoing US election uncertainty, investors stuck to a tried-and-tested play during this pandemic era. With neither Joe Biden nor President Donald Trump having yet attained the 270 electorate votes needed to claim an outright win, market participants flocked to US tech counters once more.



This market action helped propel the FXTM Social Media Index to a new record high, after posting a 6.3 percent gain on Wednesday. That bested the Nasdaq 100’s 4.4 percent advance and the S&P 500’s 2.2 percent climb for the day. The FXTM Social Media Index’s record-setting performance was enabled by the stellar gains in its constituents:

• Facebook: 8.3%
• Google: 6%
• Twitter: 2.5%
• Snapchat: 2%

And with Nasdaq futures edging into the green at the time of writing, that could translate into further gains for the FXTM Social Media index on Thursday as well.

Big Tech rejoices at divided US government

Investors continue to be gripped by the latest developments surrounding the US presidential elections, with former vice-president Joe Biden appearing closest to snatching victory. Having just won Michigan and Wisconsin, he is now estimated to be just six electoral votes short of the winning 270.

Yet, as noted within hours after the polls closed, the expected “blue wave” had evaporated. This sets up a challenging path for any new policies to be pushed through the chambers of the US government. A Biden administration, if he does indeed clinch victory, would be met with stiff opposition from a Republican-controlled Senate. In such a scenario, the heightened regulatory pressures that Democrats wish to impose on Big Tech (including Google, Facebook, Twitter) would first have to overcome stern opposition from across the political divide. As investors did the math as to who will occupy Capitol Hill over the coming years, tech stocks were able to punch higher at the thought that further scrutiny by lawmakers may be blunted by a divided US government.

At the same time, tech megacaps are set to enjoy pandemic-related tailwinds for a while more. With the US registering 100,000 cases in a single day, physical economic activities are not expected to be restored to pre-pandemic levels anytime soon, which should ensure heightened reliance on tech.

Standby by tumultuous Thursday?

Still, we must stop ourselves from getting carried away; the 2020 US presidential elections has not yet reached a conclusive end. Should President Trump’s legal onslaught gain traction and manage to put any state’s electoral votes into doubt, having already launched lawsuits in three different states, that may still spark a bout of risk aversion and prompt global equities to unwind some of the gains in the week so far.

Beyond the US elections, the Federal Reserve is due to make a policy decision later today, although the FOMC is expected to leave its policy settings unchanged. The weekly US jobless claims is expected to show stubbornly elevated levels of over 700,000 Americans claiming unemployment benefits for the week.

Still, barring any shocks out of the Fed or the US economic data releases, the latest developments pertaining to the presidential race are expected to hold court over global market sentiment as investors keenly await the declaration of the official winner.



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Daily Fundamental ForexTime ( FXTM )

Technical outlook: Gold tumbles to 4-month low






After being trapped within a wide range for many weeks, Gold has finally broken below the stubborn $1850 support level.



The primary culprits behind Gold’s sharp decline revolved around the better-than-expected U.S business activity data and rising optimism over the progress in a Covid-19 vaccine. Appetite towards the safe-haven asset took another hit amid the triggering of a formal transition process to President-elect Joe Biden. With Biden set to nominate former Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen to become the next Treasury secretary, this may boost the prospects for further fiscal and monetary stimulus given her reputation as a dove. Such a move has been welcomed by investors, with the risk-on sentiment further pressuring Gold which has weakened over 2% since the start of the week.

Now that Gold bears have awoken from hibernation and broken below the $1850 support level, the path of least resistance for the precious metal points south. Given how the MACD trades to the downside and the death cross technical formation – (where the 50-day simple moving average crosses below the 100-day simple moving average) is in play, bears are currently in the driving seat. Sustained weakness below the $1850 support may open the doors towards $1815 level and the psychological $1800 level above the 200-day simple moving average.



Zooming out to the weekly timeframe, a solid close below the $1850 could signal the start of a bearish trend. Prices are already trading below the 20 SMA while the MACD is displaying early signs of crossing to the downside. Should bears keep prices below $1850 this week, previous support could transform into a dynamic resistance that encourages a decline towards $1800 and $1760.



For those who are focusing on the shorter timeframes, there are some interesting developments on the hourly charts. An intraday rebound towards the $1840 level could be on the cards. Should this level prove to be reliable resistance, prices may decline back towards the $1820 level. If the risk-on mood further dampens appetite for the safe-haven asset, prices may break below $1820 with the psychological $1800 a key point of interest.



Back to the fundamentals…

While the positive vaccine news is set to impact Gold in the near term, the medium to longer term outlook may be influenced by lower interest rates and possible rise in inflation. Given how the Federal Reserve is expected to leave interest rates unchanged until at least 2023, the central bank could expand its QE program to support the US economy. Such may weaken the Dollar – essentially providing support to Gold.



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Daily Fundamental ForexTime ( FXTM )

Risk-On Train Gathers Momentum







Risk-on remains the name of the game as investors across the globe soak up all the good news!

A raft of positive vaccine developments, better-than-expected U.S economic data and much-needed clarity on the formal transition of leadership to president-elect Joe Biden have elevated investor sentiment. The current mood across markets is so positive that global equities are on course for their best month on record with the Dow Jones Industrial Average breaking through 30,000 for the first time.

It did not end here. The S&P 500 recorded a record close, rising 1.6% to 3,635.41 while the Nasdaq Composite added 1.3% to finish its trading day at 12,036.79. Stocks in Asia jumped on Wednesday amid the risk-on mood and this infectious optimism may support European markets later in the morning.



With global equities bulls dominating the scene and all the encouraging news stimulating appetite for riskier assets, what could possibly go wrong as 2020 slowly comes to end? Well…surging coronavirus cases across Europe and the United States remain key themes that continue to strain risk sentiment. In the United States, Democrats and Republicans have been at a stalemate for months over a new stimulus package - this could rollover into 2021. While markets may push higher in the short term, the medium to longer-term outlook remains clouded by COVID-19 & U.S. stimulus stalemate.

Enough of the fundamentals, it's time for some technicals and potential trading setups.

Dollar Index wobbles above 92.00.

The title says it all. There is no love for the Dollar thanks to the improving market mood. A solid daily close below 92.00 could open the doors towards 90.



EURUSD presses against 1.1900

The EURUSD is trading marginally below the 1.1900 resistance level. A solid breakout above this point may spark a move towards the 1.2000 support level.



GBPUSD firmly bullish above 1.3300

Pound bulls remain in control above the 1.3300 support level. A solid breakout above 1.3400 could open the doors towards 1.3482.



Gold crashes into $1800 support

After many weeks of trading within a wide range, Gold has broken below the $1850 support level. Prices are heavily bearish with all eyes on the psychological $1800 level. A solid breakdown below this point could trigger a selloff towards $1760. If $1800 proves to be reliable support, prices are likely to rebound towards $1815 and $1850.



S&P 500 bulls in the driving seat

The S&P 500 has scope to push higher if the 3550 higher low proves to be a reliable support level. Prices are trading above the 20 SMA while the MACD trades to the upside. It will be interesting to see whether the Index will hit a fresh all-time high.



Bitcoin tops $19,000

Who let the Bitcoin bulls out? The cryptocurrency has risen above $19,000 for the first time in nearly three years! This is less than $1000 away from its all-time high. Given how prices were trading below $5,000 as recently as March, bulls deserve a pat on the back. A solid weekly close above $19,000 could open the doors back to all-time highs.







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Daily Fundamental ForexTime ( FXTM )

Vaccine rally cools as markets look to economic data







Global equity markets have had a remarkable rally in November with three promising coronavirus vaccines due to see the light. US equities reached new highs on Tuesday with the Dow Jones Industrial Average breaching 30,000 for the first time, having added 12.7% month-to-date. The UK’s FTSE 100 performed even better with gains of 14.6% as many of its components benefit from a global recovery. Meanwhile, in Japan the Nikkei index hit a fresh 29-year high.

The global rally seems to have paused for now, following a modest decline of 173 points in the Dow Jones Industrial Average and 0.16% retreat in the S&P 500. The fall was driven by the sectors which have benefited the most from the vaccine news, such as Energy, Basic Materials, Industrials and Financials. However, the Nasdaq Composite ended Wednesday up 0.47% as investors flocked back to the big Tech names.

Markets seem to be repeating the cycle of the past two weeks. Vaccine news gets released on a Monday and pushes cyclical stocks sharply higher, while growth stocks get dumped. We then see a reversal in positioning in the latter part of the week. While the release of vaccine results is promising, we do not know yet when this pandemic will be completely over and that is what investors will continue to struggle with. Wednesday’s economic data showed that US jobless claims increased for a second consecutive week suggesting more pain ahead as business restrictions and partial lockdowns continue to hurt employment. Consumer spending remains a bright spot having increased 0.5% in October, but given the 0.7% decline in personal income, there is a high chance that these numbers soften in the final two months of the year.

Minutes from the FOMC’s most recent meeting earlier this month indicated that monetary policy is likely to remain accommodative and officials will provide further guidance on bond buying. The central bank is not expected to take any steps to upset the market, and it’s evident that we’ll continue to live with a low rate environment for a couple of years. However, the economy is now in need of a fiscal boost and not a monetary one. The faster the US government acts, the more jobs it will preserve and the faster activity can return to pre-Covid era levels. Time seems to be running short to pass a bill before year-end, but that is increasingly necessary in order to prevent further shocks to the economy and hence markets.




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Daily Fundamental ForexTime ( FXTM )

Risk sentiment on thinning ice


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Asian stocks are mixed while US and European equity futures are slightly lower, as risk appetite attempts to overcome concerns over the efficacy of AstraZeneca’s Covid-19 vaccine. Investor confidence had been shaken after learning about the manufacturing error in the drugmaker’s vaccine trials, prompting Thursday declines in European equities, Oil prices, and even Bitcoin.

Since the US elections, traders had been pricing in a picture-perfect post-vaccine world. The positive developments surrounding the three leading vaccine candidates formed a metaphorical three-legged stool, on which risk appetite rested upon. Now that one of those legs is showing signs of coming loose, given the unsettling AstraZeneca revelations, that has triggered a wobble in risk assets.

The market reaction of late underscores how sensitive investors sentiment is to developments surrounding the Covid-19 vaccine. Positive developments this month have translated into eye-popping gains in beaten-down sectors such as energy, financials, and even mall-based retailers, while the Dow Jones index posted a new record high. From such giddy heights, any dent to that rosey post-pandemic outlook has the potential to trigger risk-aversion, as was clearly the case in the latter part of the week.

Still, investors are hoping that the promise of a Covid-19 vaccine will come good, with the US Food and Drug Administration set to convene on December 10th to discuss the emergency use application for Pfizer and BioNTech’s vaccine. As long as those approvals happen without a hitch, that should ensure a supportive environment for risk assets to climb higher going into 2021, with the global rollout of the vaccine set to bring the world closer to pre-pandemic life.

Gold bulls waiting to catch a break

In the meantime, Gold prices have continued to struggled under the weight of the risk-on sentiment evident for much of November, with the top Bullion ETF set to record its highest monthly outflow since 2017. The climb in US Treasury yields since August, coupled with the Dollar index’s refusal to capitulate below the 92 psychological level, have also contributed to the 12 percent decline from Gold’s record high.

Traders will be closely monitoring how reliably spot Gold’s 200-day simple moving average can perform its role as a crucial support level. It remains to be seen whether Gold bulls can gather enough mass to keep prices supported, as they continue pinning their hopes on an overshoot in US inflationary pressures, aided by fresh rounds of fiscal and monetary stimulus. The relenting of such expectations en masse could then translate into a sustained presence below $1800, as investors rotate out of the precious metal into other asset classes that are currently in vogue, such as equities.

Oil awaits crucial OPEC+ supply decision

Oil prices are paring Thursday’s losses, as investors hold on to expectations that next week’s OPEC+ meeting will result in pushing back plans to ease their supply cuts by three months, despite signs of tensions within the group of major Oil producers. Both Brent and WTI futures are still on course for a fourth consecutive weekly gain, ahead of the crucial OPEC+ decision due next week.

Should OPEC+ press ahead with bringing 1.9 million barrels a day back into global markets in January as intended, that would deal a nasty shock to Brent Oil and bring the benchmark back down closer to the $40/bbl mark. A shorter delay of less than three months could also prompt Oil to unwind some of its November gains. Still, Oil prices should enjoy enough support from the optimism surrounding the Covid-19 vaccine, provided that too isn’t derailed.




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Daily Fundamental ForexTime ( FXTM )

U.K. approves Pfizer COVID-19 vaccine






The United Kingdom has become the first country in the world to approve the Pfizer/BioNtech Covid-19 vaccine!

This emergency authorization marks a historic moment and clears the way for the deployment of a vaccine that is expected to play a critical role in halting the coronavirus outbreak. Given how the vaccine will be available in Britain from next week, this opens the way for mass immunisation and raises the prospects of the European Union and the United States making a similar move.

Such encouraging news is poised to elevate global risk sentiment as investors become increasingly optimistic over the vaccine speeding up the pace of economic recovery. Equity bulls may be injected with a renewed sense of confidence amid the good news while safe-havens like the Dollar, Japanese Yen and Gold are positioned to weaken.

Battered Dollar gets no love

The Dollar descended deeper into the abyss on Tuesday evening as cautious optimism that the United States will revive stimulus talks fuelled risk appetite. News that the United Kingdom has approved Pfizer’s Covid-19 vaccine weakened the currency further.

Over the past few weeks, there was no love for the Dollar thanks to positive vaccine news, mixed economic data and surging coronavirus cases in the United States. The latest developments regarding U.S Treasury Secretary Steve Mnuchin and House of Representatives Speaker Nancy Pelosi holding fresh stimulus talks have offered some light at the end of the long tunnel. However, markets remain skeptical whether these talks will open the doors to more stimulus, since investors were already left empty handed before the presidential election. Nevertheless, the idea of the United States unleashing further stimulus in 2021 to support the economy has dragged the Dollar Index (DXY) to levels not seen since late April 2018.



The outlook for the Dollar Index remains bearish as the fundamentals and technical align. After experiencing its worst month in November since July, the Dollar has entered December under intense pressure. Looking at the technical picture, prices have tumbled roughly 0.7% since the start of December and almost 3% this quarter. The DXY is trading around 91.19 as of writing with bears eyeing the 91.00 support level. A solid breakdown below this point could open a path towards 90.00. Alternatively, prices may experience a technical bounce back towards the 92.00 resistance before bears jump back into the game. This bearish setup becomes invalidated once a weekly close above 92.00 is achieved.



EURUSD blasts above 1.2000

In our FX Week Ahead report on Monday, we discussed the possibility of the EURUSD breaking above the 1.2000 psychological resistance level.

The solid breakout and daily close above this key resistance are likely to signal a move towards levels not seen since April 2018 above 1.2150. Should Dollar weakness remain a key theme in December, this may inject Euro bulls with enough inspiration to challenge prices beyond 1.2150. Although the outlook points north, a move back below 1.2000 could signal a decline back towards 1.1900.



GBPUSD secures daily close above 1.3400

It’s not only the Euro that has welcomed a weaker Dollar. The GBPUSD jumped over 100 pips on Tuesday to close above 1.3400. While prices could push higher in the near term, the medium to longer term outlook remains heavily influenced by Brexit. As the clock ticks closer to the official Brexit transition deadline on the 31st of December, the GBPUSD is likely to turn volatile and sensitive. Focusing on the near-term outlook, the upside momentum may drive prices towards 1.3520



AUDUSD find support above 0.7340

Expect the AUDUSD to push higher if the Dollar continues to weaken. Such a development could open the doors towards 0.7413.

Should 0.7340 prove to be unreliable support, the AUDUSD may decline back towards 0.7250.






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Daily Fundamental ForexTime ( FXTM )

OPEC+ to re-attempt breaking deadlock today







Oil prices are keeping the faith that OPEC+ will come good on staving its supplies from global markets, even as the alliance tries to keep it together amid an internal squabble.

A confluence of factors between the anticipation for an OPEC+ delay to its supply restoration plans and optimism over the global economic recovery, are stacked against the lingering dampeners of the pandemic, keeping Oil prices hovering around their highest levels since April, despite the recent dip.









Recall that OPEC+ was slated for a meeting earlier this week to decide on the timing of its next output hike. That meeting failed to produce any conclusive outcome, and talks are set to resume later today.

Here’s a quick recap on the key phases of the OPEC+ supply response to the global pandemic so far:

• May: OPEC+ reduced output by 9.7 million barrels per day (bpd), as the pandemic wrought havoc on global demand.
• August: The output cuts were scaled back to 7.7 million bpd, amid signs that the worst of the pandemic was over.

As things stand, OPEC+ is slated to ease up on its production cuts by another 1.9 million barrels per day, starting January.

Brittle recovery fuels OPEC+ conundrum

There are concerns that Oil prices can’t be sustained at current levels without OPEC+ holding back on its existing plans to restore more supplies next month. This is due to the notion that the overall health of global demand is still too fragile going into 2021.

Consider the figures out of the air travel industry.

Airlines in the US have slashed their January schedules by a daily average of nearly 4,000 flights, while Europe is expected to see a 50-60 percent drop in flights over the first two months of 2021. Such forecasts show that demand will need more time to recover, even as the US has just witnessed its deadliest day ever from Covid-19, while Germany and Italy have either extended or tightened their respective lockdowns. These major economies likely have to battle the effects of the coronavirus for some time more, even with a vaccine.

In contrast, China, the world’s largest oil importer, remains a bright spark! 11,700 domestic flights took place in China on 1 December alone, while inner city traffic is also close to pre-pandemic levels. Keep in mind that most of OPEC's Oil goes to Asia.

Such uneven figures are giving some OPEC+ members pause about restoring too much supply too soon. Other members are raring to pump out more so as to generate income for their fiscal coffers.

Oil-related stocks also hanging on to OPEC+ decision

The uncertainty isn’t just seizing up benchmark Oil prices, but also keeping the stocks of Oil companies in limbo. Consider BP’s stunning 26.36 percent gain in November, as the company’s stock rose in tandem with the 24.69 percent climb in Brent futures last month.



Such gains would only hold up if OPEC+ can overcome their differences and deliver the outcome that markets are expecting. Otherwise, markets could be in for a nasty shock.




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Daily Fundamental ForexTime ( FXTM )

Can Carnival’s share price cruise to a new 2021 high?







Carnival Corporation is set to unveil its latest quarterly earnings on Wednesday, 7 April.

The cruise operator’s financial results for the three months ending 28 February are set to bear the deep scars inflicted by the global pandemic. Yet investors have been willing to pay scant attention to such backward-looking figures. Instead, they have been looking forward to the day when Carnival’s cruise ships will set sail once more, filled with holiday goers who are eager (and also hopefully vaccinated) for a break from the lockdowns around the world.

Such hopes have catapulted the stock higher by almost 260% since 2 April 2020!





Carnival’s stock price still a long way from pre-pandemic levels

Following an 85% plunge between 17 January until 2 April last year, Carnival’s stock ended up sinking below the $8.00 mark to hit its lowest levels since 1993. Despite the stunning recovery in the 12 months since, the stock currently remains about 45% lower from its pre-pandemic high, when it breached the $50 mark in January 2020.

From a technical perspective, Carnival’s stock recently enjoyed support at its 50-day simple moving average. And with its MACD momentum poised to break above its signal line, coupled with the fact that its 14-day relative strength index has yet to reach technically overbought levels, the stock appears on the cusp of exploring more of its upside.

Although there is still a notable distance between its current share price from pre-pandemic levels, such a gap also signals the potential upside for Carnival’s stock, as its business eventually is restored.

How might Carnival’s share price perform today?

Market participants are poised to react to any commentary or details today about when more of Carnival’s cruises can resume. Any developments related to advanced bookings and pricing could reveal a lot about the pent-up demand for the company’s products and offerings.

Markets are pricing in a 5.56% move, either upwards or downwards, when Carnival releases its fiscal Q1 earnings. Note that this stock is now 4% away from this year’s highest closing price, set on 15 March.

Carnival’s share prices registered gains after 4 out of the past 5 quarterly earnings announcements. Despite some negative surprises in the hard numbers, clearly many investors and traders had little qualms getting on board with this stock, pushing it higher by 32% already so far this year.

Still, going into the earnings announcement, at least 5% of Carnival’s shares are being shorted.

What are the market expectations for Carnival’s fiscal Q1 earnings?

Wall Street predicts that Carnival’s latest quarterly revenue would come in at $66.9 million, and an adjusted loss per share of $1.68 for the period.

For Carnival’s bottom line, Wall Street is forecasting a net loss of $1.74 billion in this latest financial quarter, which would mark a fifth consecutive fiscal quarter of net losses for the cruise operator. No surprise also that its top line has been wiped out by Covid-19, dwindling to a mere pittance versus the average $5.1 billion in quarterly revenue it used to rake in since December 2018 until the pandemic struck.

It is also estimated that Carnival had to burn through $600 million per month between December 2020 and February 2021 in trying to keep its business afloat. Carnival’s decision to get rid of 19 ships off its books did help pad up its cash buffers, adding to the billions raised via sales of bonds and common shares.

Is the tide turning?

However, Carnival’s fortunes are set to reverse course in the coming months.

• Mid-summer 2021: The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention said yesterday that US cruises may recommence in a few months, as Carnival threatened to relocate its ships away from US ports.
• May 2021: Carnival’s Italian outfit, Costa Cruises, will sail guests to various locations around Italy, Greece, and Croatia, with later visits to France and Spain starting mid-June.
• July 2021: Carnival’s ultra-luxury cruise line, Seabourn, has been approved by the Government of Greece to relaunch its voyages in the Mediterranean.

As the Covid-19 vaccine continues making its way throughout the globe, allowing for leisurely travel to resume, that should in turn bolster Carnival’s business and stock prospects.

The question now is whether this party is just getting started and the stock can climb much higher, or has this ship already sailed?

Much rests on what Carnival’s management conveys today, and how well they can dispel the lingering uncertainties surrounding its business outlook. Carnival’s commentary today could potentially signal the next wave of either buying or selling of this stock, even as most of its fleet remains docked for now.

​

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Daily Fundamental ForexTime ( FXTM )

Key events this week: Can US stocks climb higher?





The Dow, S&P 500, and the Nasdaq 100 all posted new record highs last week, although the futures contract for all three benchmark indices are easing slightly at the time of writing. From a technical perspective, such dips are only natural as these assets pull away form overbought territory, as adjudged by their respective 14-day relative strength indexes.

"Markets Extra" Podcast: What is an index and why it matters? A chat with Nasdaq



Last week was also the calmest week for the US stock market so far in 2021, with this past Friday’s trading volume at its lowest since Christmas eve, according to Bloomberg data. Wall Street’s fabled fear gauge, the VIX index, fell to its lowest since February 2020, before the pandemic forced lockdowns across the developed world.

Perhaps the most pressing questions now: how long will this tranquility last, and can these benchmark US indices post fresh record peaks?

Much could depend on the key data and events this week:



Tuesday, April 13

• US consumer price index

Wednesday, April 14:

• Fed Beige Book
• Fed chair Jerome Powell speech
• US earnings season kicks off

Thursday, April 15:

• US retail sales and industrial production

Friday, April 16:

• US consumer sentiment

Inflation expectations still a primary driver of market sentiment

The outlook for US inflation still remains a hot topic for debate.

On one hand, markets expect prices to rise, fueled by the trillions that have been pumped into the economy by the US government and the Federal Reserve. On the other hand, Fed officials have often reiterated their expectations that any burst of inflation is likely to fade away. They have also sought to repeatedly assure the markets that policymakers have the tools to rein in inflationary pressures if they start to do damage to the economic recovery.

With all that in mind, Tuesday’s release of the US March consumer price index is set to be used as the next marker in ascertaining whether markets’ expectations for an inflation overshoot are warranted. Economists expect the month-on-month print to come in at 0.5%, 10 basis points compared to February’s reading. The year-on-year headline CPI is expected to come in at 2.5%, although investors will be cognizant of the low base effect from March 2020.

All that said, a higher-than-expected inflation reading could prompt more selling of US Treasuries, pushing yields higher while triggering volatility in equities. Overvalued tech names stand to lose out in such a scenario, potentially eroding the Nasdaq 100’s month-to-date gains of 5.76%.





Of course, investors will be parsing through all of the key events listed above, and assessing how each of them (Fed Beige Book, Powell’s speech, retail sales, industrial production, consumer sentiment) could fit into the broader narrative surrounding US inflation and the Fed’s policy response.

If markets get the impression that the Fed has got it wrong, and may have to ease up on their asset purchases and raise US interest rates sooner than expected, that could send a jolt across multiple asset classes and dampen the tech stocks party once more.

Earnings season to encourage risk-on mood?

Still, investor sentiment could be buffered by what’s expected to be the highest earnings growth for S&P 500 companies in a decade!

Earnings season kicks off on Wednesday, with financial heavyweights such as JPMorgan, Goldman Sachs, and Wells Fargo reporting their respective quarterly financial results.

According to FactSet, it’s estimated that earnings could grow by 23.8% year-on-year, although the actual figure might be at least 28%. More surprises to the upside could spell further gains for the S&P 500.



The main story around the US stock market remains the US economic recovery. Fed Chair Jerome Powell, in a TV interview that was aired over the weekend, said that the US economy is at an “inflection point” and that “the outlook has brightened substantially”. He also warned of that a resurgence of Covid-19 in the States is a major risk to the economic recovery.

Unless such a negative risk materializes, markets think that the recovery that runs too far too fast could influence the Fed policy outlook, although such a narrative is still subject for interpretation. A massive shift in expectations surrounding the Fed’s policy trajectory, which causes an unruly surge in Treasury yields, could upend the risk-on party. Also, if the inoculation efforts are derailed which dashes the optimism surrounding the US economic recovery, that could warrant a pullback in stocks as well.

Until such things happen, I do expect stocks to continue claiming higher ground over the near-term.




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Daily Fundamental ForexTime ( FXTM )

Slow start to a busy week







Asian shares were mostly higher on Monday while US equity futures are trading mixed after the S&P 500 and Dow Jones closed at all-time highs on Friday.

Last week’s strong economic data from the United States and China have fueled hopes of a solid global economic recovery. Bumper corporate earnings from US banks have also injected equity bulls with enough inspiration to elevate indices to record highs. These themes are likely to support the risk-on mood despite global Covid-19 cases hitting a weekly record last week. European stocks have opened marginally higher this morning amid the market positivity and this could trickle down into Wall Street later in the afternoon.

Despite all this positivity, it does feel like a sluggish start to what should be a busy week for markets. Today, the calendar is void of any major economic releases in the United States, United Kingdom and Europe. There is little movement across currency markets at the time of writing while Gold is hovering around $1777. But given how earnings season is set to build momentum through the week and major economies will release key data that could influence sentiment, things could liven up in the next few days.

Dollar still sulking

The dollar has stumbled into the new week under pressure as Treasury yields lingered near their lowest in five weeks. The greenback has weakened against most G10 currencies this morning with the Dollar Index (DXY) wobbling above the 91.50 support. Since the start of April, the DXY has lost roughly 1.80% and this may continue despite the string of encouraging data from the United States pointing to an accelerated economic recovery. As investors accept the Federal Reserves' vow to keep an accommodative monetary policy stance until it sees stronger employment and inflation, dollar bears might remain in the driving seat. With the DXY trading below the 200-day SMA and respecting the bearish trend, further downside could be on the cards. A solid breakdown below 91.50 should open the doors towards 91.30 and 90.80.

Commodity spotlight – Gold

Gold drew ample strength from falling Treasury yields and a weaker dollar last week. The commodity is up over 4% this month and has the ability to push higher amid rising tensions between the United States and Russia. However, gold bears could still make an appearance as economic data from the two largest economies in the world remains highly encouraging and may boost global sentiment. If risk-on becomes the name of the game, it could hit appetite for safe-haven gold.

Looking at the technical picture, gold bulls are back in town and look to have an appetite for $1800.




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Daily Fundamental ForexTime ( FXTM )

Canadian dollar bruised ahead of BoC decision






Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau has just announced that the country will keep its border restrictions intact for at least another month, until May 21. The decision was made as the country continues battling Covid-19, especially in Ontario, which is Canada’s largest province and home to some 14.7 million people.

The country recently had more new Covid-19 cases than the US for the first time since the pandemic hit. Ontario has been in a state of emergency since 8 April amid a third wave of cases. According to Bloomberg data, Canada has enough vaccines for almost 14% of its population, lagging behind the US and the UK which have enough to account for over 30% of their respective populations.

Trudeau’s announcement apparently prompted the knee jerk reaction in USDCAD. The pair has eased off since, pulling away from overbought territory on the hourly chart.





Zooming out to the daily chart, USDCAD has now breached its 50-day simple moving average (SMA) though remains unable to breach the 1.263 resistance level (as highlighted in Monday’s report) which has repelled any attempt by this pair to break higher since early March.





The recent drop puts the Canadian dollar in third place among the best-performing G10 currency against the US Dollar so far this year. The Norwegian Krone is still in first place, while the British Pound overtook the loonie in second place this week. Also on a year-to-date basis, the Canadian dollar had strengthened against all G10 currencies except for the NOK and the GBP.

However, the CAD has weakened against all of its G10 peers on a month-to-date basis.





From a fundamental perspective, the Canadian dollar’s strength in Q1 had been fuelled by the robust recovery in Canada’s economy. The country added 303,100 jobs in March, which was three times more than market expectations, while also being about 17% higher than the jobs added in the month prior.

Canada’s economic fundamentals should be bolstered by the government’s recently-released budget; its first in two years. This past Monday, Prime Minister Trudeau released the government’s US$80.6 billion spending plan which would span the next three years, featuring over 200 new measures.

This prospects of increased spending, while noting Canada’s aim to keep its debt-to-GDP ratio in check, should also help the loonie take advantage of the softer greenback while keeping the overall downward trend in USDCAD intact.

Bank of Canada to make rate decision Wednesday

With the economy apparently on firmer footing, the Bank of Canada could announce the paring back of its weekly bond purchases, from the current rate of C$4 billion down to C$3 billion, and may even comment about a potential rate hike sooner than 2023.

Should that happen, that could drive up Canada’s government bond yields even higher, which may then serve as a tailwind for the CAD. Such commentary could move USDCAD back below its 50-SMA and closer towards the 1.247 mark.

However, should the BOC adopt a dovish tone in light of Covid-19’s resurgence within its borders, that could surprise markets and trigger another round of weakness in CAD.

Such a dovish surprise could see USDCAD climb towards its 100-SMA and possibly even test the 1.2690 resistance line.

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Daily Fundamental ForexTime ( FXTM )

US stocks vexed by tax plan







US stocks took a step back on Thursday, amid reports that President Joe Biden could impose a higher capital gains tax rate of 39.6% on individuals earning US$ 1 million or more. Such headlines may have prompted wealthier investors to book in some profits before such a measure kicks in, and will be eyeing the official tax rate that POTUS will unveil before Congress on 28 April.

Following the news, the S&P 500 registered its biggest single-day drop since 18 March, falling by 0.92% at yesterday’s close. The Dow also declined, shedding 0.94%, led by the materials sector.





US tech stocks took a bigger hit yesterday, with the Nasdaq 100 falling 1.24% to drop below its February cycle highs.



Big Tech companies are seen to be more exposed to the threat of higher tax bills. Noting that tech giants such as Apple and Microsoft have revealed overseas profits exceeding US$100 billion, they are seen to be prime targets to help fund the Biden administration’s spending plans. Recall also earlier this month, the Treasury Department announced plans to raise the corporate tax from 21% to 28%, although a compromised 25% is likelier to become law.

Note that these are just proposals at this point in time, and have yet to be passed by lawmakers. Still, given the forward-looking nature of the markets, it hasn’t stopped markets from reacting to such risks. The Biden policy pipeline remains a key risk that global investors will have to continuously monitor.

Despite such bumps along the way, as highlighted in yesterday’s report, stock markets are still expected to explore more of their upside potential.

At the time of writing, the futures contracts for all 3 benchmark US indexes are edging higher.

EURUSD little changed after ECB meeting

The European Central Bank kept its policy settings unchanged at yesterday’s rate meeting, as widely expected, while ECB President Christine Lagarde said little to rock the boat. Lagarde stated that the central bank isn’t yet entertaining the thought of reining in its emergency bond-buying programme, amid green shoots of an economic recovery, buffered by higher vaccination rates and the prospects of 800 billion euros in fiscal stimulus being rolled out later this year.

However, Lagarde did say that the ECB will keep a close eye on the shared currency, considering that a stronger euro could serve as a drag on import prices which would influence inflationary pressures onshore, while making European exports less affordable to its global customers.

Such commentary suggests that the euro might have a tough time matching its highs against the greenback from earlier this year, despite the softer dollar environment that we are witnessing currently. And given that the euro accounts for 57.6% of the benchmark Dollar index (DXY), a euro that is prevented from taking full advantage of the softer buck may in turn offer support for the DXY.

As things stand, the world’s most traded currency pair remains hemmed in by the psychological 1.20 level and its 100-day simple moving average (SMA).





What are markets looking out for on Friday?

Global investors will be eyeing the April preliminary PMI figures out of the US, UK, and the Eurozone today.

These economic data are mostly expected to march further into expansionary territory, as denoted by a print above the 50 line, except for the Eurozone’s services sector.

Even as they digest the latest developments surrounding the pandemic, and also the prospects of higher taxes in the US, market participants who still harbour a healthy appetite for risk-taking activities would be hoping that the optimism surrounding the global economic recovery would remain intact and help stock markets end the trading week on a positive note.

There remain enough reasons to expect further gains for risk assets, considering the continued rollout of the Covid-19 vaccine around the world, and the continued fiscal and monetary policy support across major economies.



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Daily Fundamental ForexTime ( FXTM )

Key events this week: Big earnings for Big Tech?








There’s a lot happening this week, especially on the US earnings front:

Monday, April 26

• Tesla earnings (after US markets close)

Tuesday, April 27

• Bank of Japan rate decision
• Alphabet earnings (after US markets close)
• Microsoft earnings (after US markets close)

Wednesday, April 28

• US President Biden addresses joint Congress
• Fed rate decision
• ECB President Christine Lagarde speech
• OPEC+ meeting
• Apple earnings (after US markets close)
• Facebook earnings (after US markets close)

Thursday, April 29

• Amazon earnings (after US markets close)
• Twitter earnings (after US markets close)
• US Q1 GDP, weekly jobless claims

Friday, April 30

• China PMI
• Eurozone GDP, CPI, unemployment
• US personal income/spending, consumer sentiment

As I had mentioned last Thursday:

“Corporate guidance for earnings growth over the coming weeks is likely to have an influential role in determining whether US stocks can roar higher. Investors want to ascertain whether earnings prospects are bullish enough to warrant another leg higher for US indices, and whether the Q1 performance has justified recent gains.”

The same will be applicable for these Big Tech stocks that are scheduled to unveil their latest quarterly earnings this week.

Note that Tesla, Alphabet, Microsoft, Apple, Facebook, and Amazon have a combined market cap of about $9 trillion. That’s more than half of the total value of the Nasdaq 100 index, which has a market cap of nearly $16 trillion. Hence, how these stocks move could have an outsized impact on the tech-heavy index this week. At present, markets are pricing in an average single-day move of 4% in either direction for each of these six stocks once US markets resume trading after their respective earnings releases.

A notedly optimistic earnings outlook from these tech behemoths could spur the Nasdaq 100 onto a new record high, considering that the index itself is less than one percent away from beating its 16 April peak.

Meanwhile, the futures contract is now edging its way back towards the 14,000 mark.



Amidst all these headline-grabbing earnings releases, Joe Biden is also set to address Congress for the first time as the President of the United States. As he unveils more details about his ambitious spending plans, investors would also be anxiously awaiting details about how it would be funded.

There’s been media reports last week about a doubling of the capital gains tax, adding to the proposed corporate tax hike announced earlier this month.

And with Big Tech companies front and center of the taxman’s sights, more of such details released this week could drag US tech stocks lower.



FXTM Social Media index to cross 700 and hit new record high this week?

This index is evenly weighted between its 4 constituents, namely Facebook, Alphabet, Twitter, and Snapchat. Note that Snapchat already released its latest quarterly earnings after US markets closed on Thursday, 22 April. This social media company reported better-than-expected surges in its revenue and daily active users, which grew 66% and 22% year-on-year respectively.

Such a performance pushed Snap’s share price up by 7.45% on Friday alone, which ended a losing streak for the 5 consecutive sessions prior.

Friday’s surge in Snap’s stocks helped propel the FXTM Social Media index to its highest ever closing price before the weekend.



Positive guidance out of Facebook, Alphabet, and Twitter this week might see the FXTM Social Media index push above the psychologically-important 700 line before it reaches overbought territory.

However, should markets be grossly disappointed either by the latest quarterly results or what management has to say about the coming quarters, that could deflate this index until it tests its 50-day simple moving average as a support level once more. The 610-640 range may also prove to be a key area of interest to the downside.



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Daily Fundamental ForexTime ( FXTM )

Earnings Preview: Uber to drive past pandemic woes?







America’s largest ride-hailing platform is set to announce its Q1 results after US markets close on Wednesday. Investors want to know how much Uber’s services are back in demand, as lockdown measures eased between January and March this year.

Even as broader stock markets have been celebrating the reopening of the US economy, Uber’s stock prices were noticeably more sanguine. The stock has been relatively range-bound over the past two months, with the stock finding a close above $60 unsustainable since posting its highest ever closing price on 10 February. The stock has fallen by over 16% since.





Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen spooked some segments of the US stock market on Tuesday with comments that hinted at rising interest rates to curb an overheating economy. The selloff in tech stocks contributed to Uber’s share price closing below its lower Bollinger band.

That in itself may not be such a bad thing for technical traders.

Uber bulls might take heart from such a technical event because the last time the stock closed below the lower bound of the band, it went on to stage a massive rally of more than 35% in just over two weeks! Also, over the past 12 months, the stock has found its forays below its 100-day simple moving average (SMA) to be fleeting.

Perhaps in that regard, this stock is akin to a coiled spring, raring to be propelled higher from such oversold conditions, with Wednesday’s announcement potentially serving as the trigger.

Though with momentum firmly pointing south, Uber appears in need of a major vote of optimism from the markets before we can say with conviction that a new record high is coming into view.

Is the pandemic finally in Uber’s rearview mirror?

For the quarter, markets are expecting Uber’s revenue to come in at $3.25 billion, which would mark a gradual increase from the past two quarters, though still 8.2% lower year-on-year.

The bigger boost likely came from some pandemic-era habits that have stuck around. Uber’s delivery services increased by 150% year-on-year in March, which helped the company post a record high for its monthly gross bookings!

Still, Uber’s net loss for Q1 is forecasted at around $1.05 billion, with investors wanting to know how such numbers might impact the company’s repeated forecasts of achieving profitability by year-end.

Winding road ahead

In its pursuit of profitability, Uber is also set to face some near-term challenges.

The company has set aside an extra $250 million to lure drivers back with, as the demand resurgence outpaces the number of drivers who’s willing to return to such gigs. That figure could erode its bottom line in the coming quarters.

Also, Uber may have to contend with higher operating costs if regulators are to have their way. Just last week, US Labor Secretary, Marty Walsh, said that gig workers should be classified as “employees”, which raises the prospects of the likes of Uber being saddled with the compliance costs to employment law. In March, Uber reclassified all its drivers in the UK as “workers”, and the entitled benefits to drivers would cost the company about $300 million per year, according to Morgan Stanley estimates.

Raring to grow

Still, it’s not all doom and gloom for Uber’s outlook.

Besides riding on the global economic reopening, Uber plans to also aggressively grow its delivery services across the US over the coming months, reportedly in partnership with GoPuff, a startup that focuses on deliveries. Such a move would help bolster its deliveries offerings, following its $2.65 billion acquisition of Postmates last year.

There are also plans to roll out Uber Eats Germany, expanding its foray on the continent beyond existing markets in Spain, France, Poland, and the UK. Uber is also partnering with a London-based EV maker to produce cars for ride-hailing by Q3 2023.

Such ambitions could help Uber diversify its income streams, both geographically and also across varying business segments.

How could Uber’s shares react post-earnings?

Markets think that the stock could move by 8.43% when the US cash session reopens after Uber’s Q1 earnings have been released.

Uber’s shares already gained 3.6% in extended trading on Tuesday, climbing alongside the stock prices of its rival, Lyft, which announced its own results after markets closed.

Those who believe in Uber’s long-term prospects must gain enough critical mass in order for the stock to hit a new record high.

At least for the near-term, investors can take heart that, as the Covid-19 vaccine continues permeating major economies, that should help bolster Uber’s core business as people grow more comfortable hopping back into an Uber for their trips back to work, school, or out about town.




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Daily Fundamental ForexTime ( FXTM )

US stocks to climb on jobs optimism







Asian markets are climbing on the back of Thursday’s gains for US benchmark indices, following fresh signs that the US economy is healing from the wounds inflicted by the pandemic.

The S&P 500 is now just 0.23% away from its record high, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average posted a fresh record high. The Nasdaq 100 ended a 4-day losing streak, though remains about 3% lower from its highest ever closing price recorded on 16 April.

At the time of writing, the futures contracts are pointing to further gains for US and European stocks before the weekend.

Nonfarm payrolls to validate risk-on sentiment

Yesterday, the US recorded its first sub-500k weekly jobless claims since the pandemic forced lockdowns across the country. With more Americans re-entering the workforce, that would help bring the US economy further along into the post-pandemic era.

Such optimism has to be endorsed by today’s US nonfarm payrolls data, with markets forecasting that one million jobs were added in April.

While anything above March’s print of 916,000 would still demonstrate an improvement in the US jobs market, a payrolls tally that’s higher than the-expected one million could well trigger another wave of risk-taking activities across global markets.

Investors will also be monitoring how US consumer price pressures would react to more slack being taken out of the jobs market. More importantly, markets want to know whether such inflation would persist once the low base effect fades, and force the Fed’s hands into adjusting its policy settings earlier than what these central bankers have conveyed to the markets so far.

The Fed’s commitment to its ultra-accommodative stance is arguably the biggest theme in play at the moment, despite the concerted attempts by officials to play down any talk about a premature paring of its stimulus measures.

Gold breaches psychologically-important mark

Spot gold has broken above the $1800 level for the first time since February, and is set to register its biggest weekly gain of the year so far. Gold’s climb has been aided by stabilizing Treasury yields, which in turn has led to a US dollar that’s been moderating since April, noting the inverse relationship between gold and the greenback.

The precious metal is now up by almost 7.8% over the past two months, since it registered its year-to-date low on 8 March, and has now broken above its 100-day simple moving average.

Real yields on 10-year Treasuries remain firmly in negative territory, while its breakeven rates are now around their highest since 2013. Such conditions have implored gold prices to pare its year-to-date losses, considering its trait as a zero-yielding asset.

In order for gold to push higher from current levels, spot prices must carve out an extended presence above $1800 in order to encourage more bulls to get off the sidelines, especially those who cling to the belief that the precious metal is a worthy hedge against faster inflation.





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Daily Fundamental ForexTime ( FXTM )

Key events this week: Inflation all the rage?






So much for that blockbuster US jobs report last Friday.

The April nonfarm payrolls came in at an utterly disappointing 266,000 instead of the one million figure that was expected. Yet US stocks merely shrugged off the jaw-dropping figures to climb higher, with both the S&P 500 and the Dow Jones Industrial Average posting their respective record highs on Friday.

Even Big Tech got in on the act, with the Nasdaq 100 climbing for a second straight day to move to within 2.3% of its highest ever closing price that was set on 16 April.

'Markets Extra' podcast: Sell in May - Yea or Nay



The futures contracts for all three major US stock indices (S&P 500, Dow, Nasdaq 100) are pushing higher at the time of writing.

US stocks have demonstrated tremendous resilience by taking everything in its stride, supported by a better-than-expected US vaccination rollout and the Fed’s ultra-accommodative stance.

Let’s see how they fare with this week’s key events:

Monday, May 10

• Chicago Fed President Charles Evans speech

Tuesday, May 11

• Fed speak: Fed Governor Lael Brainard, San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly,
• New York Fed President John Williams
• Germany ZEW survey expectations
• OPEC monthly market report

Wednesday, May 12

• UK GDP, industrial production
• BOE Governor Andrew Bailey speech
• Fed Vice Chair Richard Clarida speech
• US inflation

Thursday, May 13

• St. Louis Fed President James Bullard speech
• US weekly jobless claims
• Alibaba earnings (before US market opens)
• Disney, Coinbase earnings (after US market closes)

Friday, May 14

• Dallas Fed President Robert Kaplan speech
• US consumer sentiment, industrial production, retail sales

Can Gold reach its 200-day SMA?

When the shocking US jobs report was released, investors fled to safe havens.

The buying of US Treasuries sent its yields lower. The strong correlation between Treasury yields and spot gold once again on full display last week, especially when the shocking jobs figures were released. 10-year yields screeched towards the 1.5% mark before erasing its declines, not before elevating gold prices onto a higher plain.





In order for gold prices to climb even higher, investors must have stronger conviction about the precious metal’s traditional role as a hedge against inflation. Of course, falling Treasury yields and a weaker dollar would also go a long way for bullion bulls.

And that brings us to the April US consumer price index due Wednesday.

Although this set of data is expected to be high due to the low base effect, given the abnormally low CPI figures throughout Q2 2020 due to the lockdown measures across the United States, the inflation outlook is very much central to global financial markets. Still, concerns about inflation making a roaring comeback could be taken down a notch after last Friday’s severely disappointing US jobs report.

This could mean that gold bulls may have to depend on other factors, namely another decline in US yields, a softer dollar, or bouts of risk-off sentiment.

Any of these events could help move bullion closer towards testing its 200-day simple moving average as a resistance level over the course of this week. However, with spot gold’s 14-day relative strength index now flirting with overbought levels, should prices lurch higher, that may trigger a pullback to clear some of the eventual froth.





'Markets Extra' podcast: Can gold return to $2000?



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