HFMarkets (hfm.com): Market analysis services.

Date: 18th November 2024.

Monday Market Analysis and the Week Ahead!

• The NASDAQ inches up ahead of NVIDIA’s upcoming earnings report. NVIDIA will release their earnings report on Wednesday.
• Analysts expect NVIDIA’s Earnings Per Share to rise from $0.68 to $0.74 and Revenue to rise by $3 billion.
• The US Dollar remains strong as investors contemplate whether the Federal Reserve will pause in December. The Fed Chairman advises the US economy remains strong and the employment sector stable.
• The GBP was the best-performing currency in the Asian session, but will this continue as London starts trading?

NASDAQ – Investors Turn Their Attention To NVIDIA Earnings!

The NASDAQ fell for 5 consecutive days last week due to the US consumer and producer inflation striking fear amongst investors. The US inflation rate rose from 2.4% to 2.6% and the producer inflation from 1.9% to 2.4%. In addition to this the Federal Reserve advises the US economy remains strong and the employment sector stable. As a result, only 65% of investors expect the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates in December, particularly lower than the previous weeks.

Though, certain key events could prompt higher demand and investors to contemplate buying the NASDAQ at the lower price. The higher demand is also in line with what many price theories would suggest. The NASDAQ’s average resistance point from October is at $20,511.29. The price has now dropped below this level and many price theories indicate that a retracement will end around this price. However, analysts would also urge investors to consider what else will drive investors to buy, not solely the price.



For this reason, investors will be closely watching NVIDIA’s Quarterly Earnings Report on Wednesday. NVIDIA is the NASDAQ’s most influential stock holding a weight of 8.69% and is already up 0.52% in pre-hours trading. The market expects NVIDIA’s Earnings Per Share to rise from $0.68 to $0.74 and Revenue to rise by $3 billion. If the company beats these expectations, the stock is likely to rise and can support the NASDAQ. On Monday, investors will keep this in mind while trading.

Besides the upcoming earnings report investors are also monitoring the volatility in the Bond Market and the VIX Index. Bond yields continue to rise which is a concern for the stock market. The US 10 Year Treasury is up 14 points, however, the VIX index is 1.45% lower which is known to be positive. Buyers will be hoping for the VIX to remain low and for bond yields to drop. Whereas, sellers will be hoping for bond yields to rise further and the VIX to correct back upwards.

GBPUSD – Will The Cable Retrace After A Seven-Day Decline?

The GBPUSD has declined for seven consecutive days which is a price movement which has not happened before in 2024. In addition to this, the exchange rate has fallen back to the support level from June and August 2024. Therefore investors are considering whether the GBPUSD will retrace slightly higher on Monday. A retracement in the short term could potentially take the price to the resistance level at 1.26810 or 1.27190.



A retracement is possible according to analysts as the GBP is the best performing currency of the day and due to the low price. In addition to this, the US Dollar is not expected to be influenced by any economic releases until Friday, when the US as well as the UK will release their Purchasing Managers’ Index, whereas the UK will release the Monetary Policy Report tomorrow morning and their Retail Sales within the week.

In terms of potential areas to consider speculating a buy, some traders may take into consideration the breakout level at 1.26270 or once 65% of the previous swing has been made. This would be at the 1.26314 price.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

Date: 19th November 2024.

S&P 500 Earnings: Analysts Predict Walmart Will Outperform.

• The Great British Pound retraces upwards breaking the Dollar’s seven-day winning streak.
• Meta stocks continue to fall after the European Commission imposes a fine of 797 million Euros due to unfair conditions.
• Susan Collins, the chairperson of the Federal Reserve of Boston, said that a 0.25% rate cut could be considered in December, but it depends on forthcoming economic data.
• The Federal Reserve indicates a rate cut would depend fully on November’s NFP and inflation rate.

GBPUSD – Lack of Confidence In The Great British Pound!

The GBPUSD ended the day 0.45% higher, mainly gaining momentum within the US trading session. According to technical analysts, the decline was largely due to a break in the US Dollar’s trend but also investors temporarily purchasing the significant dip in the exchange rate. However, in order for the bullish price movement to maintain its upward momentum it is important for the GBP to obtain support from a further price driver.



When looking at technical analysis, even with the upward price movement which rose to yesterday’s mentioned targets, the price continues to move in line with bearish trend theories. In order to break out of the pattern, the GBPUSD will need to push higher than the 1.27210 level. However, this would require Dollar weakness as well as investor confidence in the GBP returning. Investors’ confidence in the GBP has taken a dip since the UK Autumn Budget and fear of possible Trump US-UK tariffs. Technical indicators pointing towards a potential further rise are likely to arise if the GBPUSD increases above 1.26791.

Investors are scrutinizing recent US Federal Reserve comments, adding uncertainty to future actions. Before the election, experts expected continued rate cuts, but Donald Trump’s victory and plans for tax cuts and higher import duties have reduced this likelihood. According to analysts, a reduction in the Fed’s Fund Rate will primarily depend on November’s employment and inflation data. The Fed will particularly wish to see inflation fall in order to cut a further 0.25%. Yesterday, the CME Fed-Watch tool illustrated a 65% chance of a cut. Today the possibility of a cut has fallen to 58%.

Fed Chair Jerome Powell stated there’s no urgency to lower rates, while Boston Fed Chair Susan Collins suggested a possible December cut of 25 basis points, depending on data. In contrast, Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee hinted at further reductions, totaling 125 basis points by 2025.

USA500 – Investors Expect Walmart to Beat Earnings Expectations!

The US stock market on Monday was a day of two halves and did not point towards a clear trend. Nonetheless, the downward price movement clearly lost momentum. The reason for the downward trend was primarily due to the higher inflation rate and lower possibility of another interest rate cut in December. However, certain news from individual companies also pressured the index.



Alphabet continues to come under pressure from the DOJ to sell Chrome in its search to crack down on Google’s monopoly. In addition to this, Meta came under pressure as the EU imposes another fine of 797M Euros.

However, investors are hoping the sentiment towards US companies and stocks will change with the release of Walmart’s quarterly earnings report this morning and NVIDIA’s tomorrow evening. Of the SNP’s 500 components, Walmart is the 21st most influential stock, while NVIDIA is the most influential holding a weight of 7.03%. If both reports are better than expectations, the SNP500 may outperform both the NASDAQ and Dow Jones.

Walmart has beat their earnings expectations over the past 3 quarters. Investors are expecting a slightly lower revenue and earnings per share this quarter. However, if higher than expected, the stock is likely to rise further. Investors are anticipating the earnings to beat expectations, hence why the stock is trading 1.61% higher during this morning’s pre-trading hours. So far this year, the stock has risen 59%.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Michalis Efthymiou
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

Date: 20th November 2024.

Market Rebounds as Putin Signals Readiness for Peace Talks; Focus Shifts to NVIDIA!

• US Stocks drop to a 2-week low after Ukraine fired US-made missiles into Russia, but rebound in the US session.
• Putin updates nuclear doctrine, allowing Russia to strike Ukraine if it uses weapons from nuclear-armed nations.
• Walmart again beat earnings expectations pushing the stock 3.00% higher. Earnings Per Share beat expectations by 8.00%.
• The Japanese Yen loses momentum and corrects back to previous lows. The US Dollar maintains strong bullish momentum.
• UK Inflation Rate rises from 1.7% to 2.3% supporting the GBP despite budget concerns continuing.
• NVIDIA is set to release their quarterly earnings report after market close. NVIDIA stock has risen more than 5.00% indicating the market expects a beat.

NASDAQ – All Eyes On NVIDIA Earnings Report!

The NASDAQ ended Tuesday 0.71% higher despite coming under significant pressure during the Asian and European session. The NASDAQ fell 1.20% during the day’s first two sessions due to geopolitical tensions triggering a much lower risk appetite. This is due to the US as well as other countries agreeing to allow Ukraine to strike Russia with foreign made weapons. Ukraine quickly took advantage of this by firing ATACMS into Russia. Russia responded by changing their nuclear weapon use doctrine.

Here we can see why the global stock market fell rapidly. However, why did the market recover during the US session?



During the US session, the risk appetite and confidence of the market improved as the White House confirmed nothing changes with Russia changing their Nuclear Weapons Doctrine. In addition to this, President Putin also said that he would be willing to start peace talks with President Elect Trump. Lastly, the market also took the opportunity to purchase the lower price since NVIDIA’s earnings report is imminent and Walmart already beat their earnings expectations.

Walmart is not a component of the NASDAQ, but has improved the sentiment towards the US stock market. NVIDIA, which is on the NASDAQ, is set to release their quarterly earnings report after market close. NVIDIA stock rose 4.89% yesterday and a further 0.47% this morning indicating the market expects a beat. Analysts expect the company’s Earnings Per Share to rise from $0.68 to $0.75 and revenue from $30.04 billion to $33.14 billion. As no US economic data is set to be made public throughout the day, investors are solely concentrating on geopolitical tensions and earnings.

The price of the NASDAQ rose above the 75-bar exponential moving average on the 2-hour chart for the first time since 14th. Traders will be monitoring whether the index will be able to maintain momentum above this level and if the price may also rise above the 100-bar SMA. Traders will be waiting for the NASDAQ to regain bullish momentum and if so will act accordingly. Buy signals are likely to rise if the price increases above $20,764.30 and intensifies above $20,777.93.

GBPUSD – UK Inflation Rises Above Expectations!

The price of the GBPUSD increased in value taking the exchange rate to a 1-week high, but concerns remain according to analysts. The exchange rate is trading 0.30% higher after the UK made public their latest inflation rate. The UK inflation rate rose from 1.7% to 2.3% which is higher than previous expectations and considerably higher than the previous month.



The GBP is currently the best performing currency with the Pound index trading 0.21% higher. However, the second best performing is the US Dollar Index which is trading 0.14% higher. Therefore, investors need to be cautious that a retrace or correction is still possible while the US Dollar Index remains high.

Currently the Pound is coming under pressure from the Autumn Budget and from farming strikes which are continuing. However, comments from the Bank of England could support the currency. The BoE warns that planned National Insurance hikes in the Labour budget may drive up prices, slow wage growth, and reduce hiring. Significant inflation could force prolonged tight monetary policy.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Michalis Efthymiou
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.