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Date : 8th September 2021.

Market Update – September 8 – USD Bounces as Yields Rise.


Market News

• USD (USDIndex 92.60) rallies on back of rising yields & equity wobbles.
• Yields rallied as Treasuries slipped, (10yr 1.37%).
• Equities stalled – USA500 -15 at 4520 (Dow lost -0.76%), Nasdaq flat. USAFUTS at 4521, post Labor Day profit taking, cyclicals slipped, tech held on. (MS talks of 10-15% pull back).
• USOil recovered from $67.50, back to $68.50 now, but well below $70.00 pre-NFP high.
• Gold tanked to $1792 from 1828 yesterday and 1833 on Friday. Trades at $1795 now.
• Overnight – JPY GDP beat (0.5% vs 0.2%) but Econ Sentiment slipped.

European Open – Yesterday EZ GDP revised higher, but sentiment was weaker. Today December 10yr Bund future is down -8 ticks, slightly underperforming versus Treasury futures. The paper is off the highs seen during the Asian session however, & investors will look for Fedspeak today for further guidance on US interest rate outlook. Markets seem resigned to an ECB announcement this week of a slight tapering of PEPP purchases that will likely see Bunds underperforming versus Gilts & Treasuries. DAX & FTSE 100 futures down -0.025% and -0.336% respectively after a largely weaker Asia session. FX markets: EURUSD down to 1.1835, from 1.1890 yesterday, GBP struggled and Cable dipped to 1.3755, after the government announced tax hikes that will hit workers and businesses. USDJPY rallied from 109.68 yesterday to breach & hold 110.00, at 110.40.

Today – US Crude Private Inventories, BoC Policy Decision, JOLTS report, BoE’s Bailey, Ramsden, Broadbent, Tenreyro, Fed’s Williams.



Biggest Mover @ (06:30 GMT) AUDUSD (-0.13%) All AUD pairs remain pressured following RBA yeasterday. Breached, 0.7400 to 0.7370 now. Faster MA’s aligned lower, MACD signal line & histogram below 0 line but flat. RSI 28.80, OS but still falling. Stochs OS n still falling. H1 ATR 0.00082, Daily ATR 0.00615.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Stuart Cowell
Head Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

Date : 9th September 2021.

Market Update – September 9 – USD Hold Bid as equities slip again.

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Market News

• USD (USDIndex 92.72) keeps the bid even as yields cool (92.82 high yesterday)
• Yields down from highs earlier in the week, (10yr 1.33%, now from 1.37%).
• Equities stalled again – USA500 -5 at 4514 (Dow -0.2% & Nasdaq -0.57%). USA500.F under 4500 at 4493. (FB & APPL lost over 1%, COIN over 3% & PYPL 2.74%, Visa +1.25%, & Mastercard +1.84%). Asian markets lower too. ASX 200 (-0.4%), Nikkei 225 (-0.5%),
• USOil recovered further to $69.40 after inventories yesterday, now back to $69.20. EIA inventories expected to show a drawdown of 5.9million barrels later.
• Gold slipped again (lows yesterday were $1782). Back to 1788 now, having breached 21EMA on Tuesday. Next support 1769
• Yesterday – BOC – no surprises – JOLTS – a record 10.93mln jobs opening in July vs 8.7mln unemployed Americans.
• Overnight – China news dominates, – PPI at 13 yr high (+9.5%) although CPI softer (0.85 vs 1.0%), Regulator calls in Gaming Stock owners, and Evergrande (huge real estate corporation) defaults of $300bn of debt). German trade surplus widened (17.9b vs 13.3bn) – imports slumped.

ECB Preview: If it was just the usual hawkish crowd arguing for a scaling back of asset purchase volumes, it may be easy to dismiss, but in the minutes to the last meeting there was already a hint of things to come when council members argued that strengthening the dovish guidance on rates would take the pressure off other policy instruments – i.e. QE. In a Reuters interview in August, chief economist Lane, hardly known for his particularly hawkish credentials, admitted that the ECB will have to “assess at the September meeting the appropriate calibration for the final quarter of the year, taking into account the movement in market interest rates and the inflation outlook”. Given that VP Guindos has repeatedly flagged the possibility of further upward revisions to the growth outlook, a taper announcement today seems pretty likely. However, as Lane stressed, “in the grand scheme of things, this is a local adjustment” and “purchases in the second and third quarters were significantly higher than in the first, but even in the first quarter, compared to historical norms, purchases were pretty high.” So a drop back in PEPP purchases closer to levels seen in Q1 and at the same time, a very dovish guidance on the rate outlook from Lagarde is on the cards, which would wrap the taper in a dovish package.

European Open – The December 10-year Bund future is up 7 ticks, slightly outperforming Treasury futures. Eurozone bonds managed to find some buyers yesterday, but yields have been trending higher going into today’s ECB meeting, which is expected to see the ECB dropping the reference to “significantly higher” purchases than in Q1 to signal a slight taper from next month. Lagarde will wrap that in very dovish guidance on rates, however, and a commitment to step up purchases again if necessary, which should help to limit the impact of the announcement and bonds could benefit in the end. DAX and FTSE 100 futures are still down -0.6% and -0.8% respectively ahead of the ECB and U.S. futures are also in the red, as investors in Asia in particular fret about the impact of virus developments on the global recovery. FX markets are also showing signs of risk aversion, with Dollar, Yen and CHF the main winners. EURUSD down to 1.1820 from 1.1850 yesterday, GBP struggled and Cable dipped to 1.3725, after the government tax hikes, but back to 1.3775 now. USDJPY rallied to 110.40 but has since dipped to test 110.05.

Today – ECB & Ms. Lagarde Press conference, US Weekly Claims, EIA Oil Inventories, BOC’s Macklem, Fed’s Daly, Evans, Bowman & Williams.



Biggest Mover @ (06:30 GMT) CADCHF (-0.42%) From a breach 0f 0.73 on Tuesday and 0.7275 support yesterday, to test 0.7230, the pair is back down again today. Faster MA’s aligned lower, MACD signal line & histogram below 0 line and moving lower. RSI 33 moving lower. H1 ATR 0.00071, Daily ATR 0.00605.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Stuart Cowell
Head Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

Date : 10th September 2021.

Market Update – September 10 – USD Slips, Asian equities rally.


Market News

• USD (USDIndex 92.45) slips from highs as risk sentiment picks up as CB keep their foot on the pump. Biden & Xi had a “productive” 90min call, their first since February.
• Yields down again from highs earlier in the week, (10yr 1.299%, from 1.37%). Oxford Economics expects 10yr rate to be at 1.7% by year end.
• Equities stalled again – USA500 -20 (-0.46%) at 4493 (Dow -0.43% & Nasdaq -0.25%). USA500.F 4504. (AMZN & MSFT lost over 1% yesterday). Asian stocks jump, Nikkei at 6-month high (+0.5%) & JPY weaker re: Biden/Xi & Kono to stand (likely to be next Japanese PM).
• USOil fell $2 to $67.50 after inventories yesterday, now back to $68.30. EIA inventories reported a -1.5m barrel vs -5.9m/b and -7 m/b last week.
• Gold found support at $1788 and has recovered $1800 now, as the USD dipped.
• Yesterday – ECB – no surprises on rates talked of a “moderately lower pace for PEPP” still at 20bln euro. Ms. Lagarde “We are re-calibrating PEPP, not tapering” Another non-event. – CLAIMS – a pandemic record low 310k, 4 week average 350k, BUT continuing long term claims increased to 2.8 mln.
• Overnight – More taper talk from Fed members, Biden said all federal employees will need to be vaccinated. German CPI flat at 3.9%, UK GDP misses (0.1% vs 0.5%) Trade balance slips another 2bln into the red, worsens, Manu. prodn misses but Ind. Production beats.

European Open – The December 10-year Bund future is up 6 ticks, outperforming versus Treasuries and signalling further gains in Eurozone bonds, which already staged a relief rally on Lagarde’s dovish leaning delivery of the slight taper in PEPP purchases. Rates are back in focus as the main signalling tool for the ECB’s policy stance and with the ECB’s newly tweaked guidance on the rate outlook that affirms a very dovish stance for the foreseeable future, markets clearly can live with a slight reduction in monthly purchase volumes. Interestingly, Holzmann suggested that the outlook for Fed tapering put pressure on the ECB. DAX and FTSE 100 futures are up 0.2% and 0.4% respectively, futures are also higher after a strong session in Asia overnight, suggesting that stocks also weren’t phased by the well flagged ECB announcement. Growth optimism is stabilising again and central bank policies will remain supportive for a long time to come. EURUSD flat at 1.1825, from a 40 pip, ECB range yesterday, GBP in demand, Cable has rallied to 1.3850 from a low at 1.3750 yesterday. USDJPY collapsed from 110.25 to 109.62 yesterday, recovering to 109.90 now.

Today – US PPI, Canadian Labour Market Report, ECB’s Lagarde, Fed’s Daly, Mester



Biggest Mover @ (06:30 GMT) NZDJPY (+0.35%) rallied from week low at 77.80 earlier to 78.30 now as sentiment improved, equities rallied and JPY demand cooled. Faster MA’s aligned higher, MACD signal line below 0 but rising, histogram just broke over 0. RSI 62 and rising, Stochs OB zone. H1 ATR 0.112, Daily ATR 0.576.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Stuart Cowell
Head Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

Date : 13th September 2021.

Market Update – September 13 – Tech stocks fall, USD up.


Market News
• USD (USDIndex 92.75) up as the rise in inflation and recovery in risk appetite weighed on bonds and as the policy outlook lifts US Treasury Yields, hence supporting USD. There have been a string of voices calling for Fed tapering to begin sooner rather than later, even if Covid-19 cases are surging. But as the ECB showed, one can wrap a taper in dovish guidance on rates and thus prevent a taper tantrum.
• Equities struggled again, with China’s tech sector once again hit hard by the country’s regulatory clampdown amid a report that officials want to break up Ant Group Co’s Alipay. Online platforms have also been told to protect the rights of workers.
• JPN225 down (-0.30%). But US equities up for the day, with USA500.F bottomed at the 4470-4477 area. USA100 declined -0.87%, along with the USA30.
• Toyota downgraded projections for this year’s vehicle production numbers and China issued warnings that the chip shortage could last a while which will all add to the arguments of those saying ultra-accommodative monetary policies are only adding to existing imbalances between demand and supply that are pushing up prices at the moment.
• Apple down – follows “unfavourable” court ruling related to its app store, just days before it unveils the new iPhone line up. Alphabet down, with Google Play revenue also in doubt.Tesla down to 735.11 low.
• Yields down again, with 10-year -1.4 bp at 1.33%.
• The CHF is lower to start the week, EUR and GBP have also dropped back against a largely stronger US Dollar.
• USOil up to $70.17, supported by growing signs of supply tightness in the US as a result of Hurricane Ida. About 3/4 of the US Gulf’s offshore oil production has remained halted since late August.
• Yesterday – SNB vice-president Zurbruegg said over the weekend that negative interest rates remain necessary to keep a lid on the currency, which suggests a steady hand announcement for Switzerland. In the US, Democrats are set to float 26.5% Corporate Tax.
Today – A cautious start to a week that will bring key inflation data for the US and the UK ahead of next week’s central bank announcement. The SNB decision is also coming into view.


Biggest Mover @ (06:30 GMT) EURCAD (-0.38%) dip from1.4990 to 1.4924. Faster MAs aligned lower, MACD signal lines steady at 0, implying indecision, but RSI at 41. H1 ATR 0.0015, Daily ATR 0.00839.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

Date : 14th September 2021.

Market update – September 14 – Aussie dives!


Market News

• The Treasury market holds a modest bid except in Australia and New Zealand.
• RBA’s Lowe pushed back against rate hike expectations in a bid to separate QE tapering plans from the outlook on interest rates.
• Australia house price data & Business confidence data came in higher than expected, and coupled with Lowe’s assuring words on rates the numbers still helped the ASX to gain 0.2%.
• Bonds were supported by the strength seen in last week’s 3-, 10-, and 30-year auctions, as well as by expectations the FOMC will not announce a QE tapering next week.
• Equities are mixed with solid 0.76% gains on the USA30 amid strength in energy as oil stocks surged. The USA500 posted a 0.23% increase, while the USA100 was weaker, slipping -0.07% amid declines in Chinese ADRs amid further crackdowns, this time on ANT Group. Japanese indexes are near 31-year highs and JPN225 is also currently up at 0.5% and 0.7% respectively. GER30 and UK100 futures are up.
• The AUD and NZD declined along with yields after Lowe’s remarks. USDJPY lifted to 110.08, amid a largely weaker Yen.
• USOil up to $70.88, as a storm hitting the Gulf of Mexico was upgraded to a Hurricane.
• Today’s UK labour market report presented an unemployment rate down to 4.6% in the three months to July – as expected. Earnings growth eased somewhat, but remained very strong. –Strong numbers that will add to the arguments of the hawkish camp at the BoE as officials ponder strategies to exit from QE.

Today –US inflation numbers today will be in focus for markets and investors are likely to hold back ahead of the release.



Biggest Mover @ (06:30 GMT) GBPAUD (+0.61%) spiked to 1.8890 from 1.8760. Faster MAs aligned higher, MACD signal lines are positively configured as RSI broke above 70 barrier, suggesting that bullish bias strengthens. H1 ATR 0.0022, Daily ATR 0.01063.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

Date : 15th September 2021.

Market update – September 15 – Stocks plunging again.


Market News

• Treasury yields plunged & Stock markets struggled against the background of weaker data. Buy stops were triggered on the way south for yields and added to the richening in bonds.
• Topix and JPN225 have lost -1.15% and -0.46% respectively. USA500 is posted a 0.6% decrease, USA100 down -0.45% while the USA30 was the weakest, slipping -0.84% as hefty declines were registered in energy, materials, industrials, and financials.
• China data round disappoints. – Retail sales down, Growth slowdown, Industrial Production weaker and investment growth also missed expectations. – The data round for China highlighted the impact of virus developments and added to the US inflation miss that left investors scaling back tapering concerns as soon as next week’s policy meeting.
• British inflation surged last month to its highest level since March 2012, i.e. 3.2% y/y.
• Fitch said that numerous sectors could be exposed to heightened credit risk if China’s No.2 property developer were to default, although the overall impact on the banking sector would be manageable. – Evergrande – fell for the 3rd consecutive day, losing as much as 5.1% to their lowest since January 2014.
• Amazon to hire 125,000 people in advance of the holiday shopping season.
• Apple unveiled an array of new hardware offerings.
• Chevron to triple its modest spending on green energy by 2028.
• The JPY strengthened as risk aversion picked up and USDJPY dropped back to 109.59.
• The EUR and GBP are little changed against the Dollar – EURUSD just over the 1.18 mark and Cable at 1.3823.
• USOil supported above $70.40, on a larger than expected drawdown in crude oil stocks in the United States.
• Gold jumped initially to 1,808 but is currently back to the 1800 floor, which it hit on prospects for lower interest rates.

Today: There is a lot on today’s calendar, including Canadian Inflation, US August Industrial Production, Import and Export prices and September Empire State index.



Biggest Mover @ (06:30 GMT) USA30 dipped to 34,501 from 35,000. Currently the asset sustains above 34560 however BB extends lower on the daily basis with RSI at 39 and slipping and MACD turning negative implying an increase of the negative bias in themedium term. Daily ATR 269.9.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

Date : 16th September 2021.

Market update – September 16 – Oil spikes to $72.50.


Market News

• European bond markets already underperformed yesterday, after a jump in UK inflation and as markets continue to evaluate last week’s ECB move. The US Treasury rate is down, but yields in Australia and New Zealand jumped.
• Solid data on industrial production and a big bounce in the Empire State manufacturing index, along with weaker than expected trade prices, contributed to the improved outlook. The USA500 bounced 0.85%, with the USA100 0.82% firmer, while the USA30 was up 0.68%. The JPN225 lost -0.75%, while GER30 and UK100 futures are up 0.08% and down -0.02% respectively, which suggests a cautious start to the session.
• Data: New Zealand Q2 GDP data much stronger than expected, Australia’s employment report highlights lockdown impact & Japan’s trade data, which showed a huge deficit, as export growth slowed, also added to the negative risk backdrop. Canada’s CPI rose to a 4.1% pace in August from the 3.7% growth rate (y/y, nsa) in July.
• Tech shares got a solid push from Microsoft which announced a boost to quarterly dividends and an increase in share buybacks.
• The JPY strengthened and USDJPY declined to 109.20.
• The EUR and GBP declined against a largely stronger USD, which was only beaten by the JPY.
• USOil spiked to $72.84, albeit from a further reduction in stockpiles, which helped lift the indexes. In the European open it gapped down slightly at $72.38.
• Gold down for a 2nd consecutive day. Currently at $1,784.

Today: Today’s data calendar will be closely tracked, with weekly jobless claims and the Philly index on tap, though none of the reports should impact the outlook on near term Fed policy. The August retail sales report is the highlight.



Biggest Mover @ (06:30 GMT) USOIL rallied to $72.84. Fast MAs flattened implying to short term correction, howveer the outlook holds positive as RSI is at 71 and MACD lines way above neutral zone and extending hgher. ATR (Daily) at 1.69 and ATR (H1) at 0.34.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

Date : 20th September 2021.

Market Update – September 20 – USD & Yields Bid, Stocks Sink – It’s FOMC Week.


Market News

• USD (USDIndex 93.25) third day higher (20 day high) after strong close on Friday. CAD & CHF biggest fallers Friday – AUD Shorts at 18-month high.
• Yields rallied too on Friday – higher again this morning (10yr closed at 1.37%), pushing 1.375% currently.
• Equities tanked Friday, and FUTS are lower following a weak Asian session with Japan, China, Korea & Taiwan all closed (Evergrande down 19% to 11 year low as default becomes real). Chinese regulators now looking a the wider real estate market. (USA500 -40 (-0.91%) at 4433. USA500.F 4385. (Tech giants down around 2% – FB hardest hit -2.24%) on large volumes too. Robinhood +1.00% (ARK invested $14.7 million).
• VIX +over 5% to 23.12
• USOil down $1.20 and third day lower) to $71.25 after rejecting $73.00 last week.
• Gold finding support at $1750 remains pressured on rising Yields and strong dollar, next support at $1730 and resistance at $1788.

Overnight UK house price data from Rightmove showed prices up 5.8% y/y, up from 5.6% y/y in the previous month. German PPI inflation much stronger than expected +1.5% vs 0.8% as price increases and supply chain problems continue.

European Open – The December 10-year Bund future is up 24 ticks, outperforming versus Treasury futures, which are also higher though. Bunds, which were under pressure on Friday amid reports suggesting internal inflation projections, saw yields moving higher, but risk aversion picked up again over the weekend as markets eye virus developments and China’s growth outlook. DAX and FTSE 100 are down -0.6% and -0.4% respectively, while U.S. futures are also in the red, with a nearly 1% decline in the Dow Jones leading the way. In FX markets both EUR and Sterling declined against a stronger dollar, leaving EURUSD at 1.1713 and Cable at 1.3700. USDJPY cremains capped by 110.00 and trades at 109.88

Central banks will be in focus this week, first and foremost of course the Fed, but in Europe, the BoE, the SNB and Norges Bank also set policy this week. That will likely see investors holding back at least until the Fed decision is out of the way. Today’s data calendar is also pretty quiet. UK house price data from Rightmove showed prices up 5.8% y/y, up from 5.6% y/y in the previous month. German PPI inflation much stronger than expected +1.5% vs 0.8% as price & supply chain problems continue.

Today – Canadian Elections, ECB’s Schnabel



Biggest Mover @ (06:30 GMT) AUDUSD (-0.59%) continued last weeks decline and the rejection of 0.7400, earlier in the month. Trades at 0.7230, next major support 0.7225 and 0.7200. Faster MA’s aligned lower, MACD signal line and histogram below 0 line and declining. RSI 27 and OS zone, Stochs OS zone from Friday. H1 ATR 0.0010, Daily ATR 0.0060.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Stuart Cowell
Head Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

Date : 21st September 2021.

Market Update – September 21 – Evergrande worries weigh.



Market News

• USD (USDIndex 93.17) holds gains but down from 20 day high at 93.43. CAD recovers after Trudeau gets minority majority and 3rd term.
• Yields collapsed yesterday (10yr down to 1.309% from 1.37% on Friday.)
• Equities tanked globally, Evergrande worries persist. (USA500 -75 (-1.7%) at 4357. USA500.F ticks higher 4375. Some recovery into close was evident & Tuesday calm is following Monday’s carnage. (Tech giants down around 3% – TSLA hardest hit -3.86%). DAX worst of majors -2.3%. Nikkei down 2%. China, Taiwan & S. Korea still closed. VIX spiked to 26.80, highest since May.
• USOil breached under $70.00 yesterday to $69.69, since recovering to $70.50.
• Gold tested down to $1742, recovered $1750, trades at $1763 now.

Overnight – RBA minutes – nothing new – Delta variant has “delayed, but not derailed, the recovery”, the economy will “bounce back”, “conditions for rate rise will not be met until 2024”. AUD back to 0.7275, AUDJPY up to 79.75 from test of 79.00 yesterday.

European Open – December 10-yr Bund future unchanged on the day, US futures slightly lower. In Europe, Riksbank kicks off this week’s round of central bank meetings, which include Norges Bank, BoE & SNB on Thursday. There is also news from central banks in Japan, Brazil, Hungary, Indonesia, Norway, the Philippines, South Africa, Sweden, Switzerland, Taiwan & Turkey this week.

However, FOMC will take centre stage & while stock markets seem to be stabilising after yesterday’s rout, volatility is likely to remain high ahead of tomorrow’s announcement DAX and FTSE 100 futures are up 0.4% and 0.6% respectively, while a 0.5% rise in the Dow Jones is leading a pick up in U.S. futures. In FX markets both EUR and pound gained ground as the dollar struggled with the strengthening of risk appetite. EURUSD is at 1.1735 and Cable at 1.3675. USDJPY dropped to 109.30 yesterday recovering to 109.56 now.

Today – Riksbank rate decision, US housing starts & building permits, ECB’s de Guindos




Biggest Mover @ (06:30 GMT) CADJPY (+0.85%) Trudeau result lifts CAD. From 87.00 on Friday to under 85.00 Monday and back to 86.00 now. Faster MA’s aligned higher, MACD signal line and histogram below 0 line but rallying. RSI 60 and rising. H1 ATR 0.170, Daily ATR 0.70.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Stuart Cowell
Head Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

Date : 22nd September 2021.

Market Update – September 22 – No Turnaround Tuesday.

Trading Leveraged Products is risky
Market News

• USD (USDIndex 93.25) holds gains, Evergrande will pay some local debt on Thursday, but major doubts remain. Strong Housing data helped USD. AUD recovers lifting NZD, JPY slips post BOJ. CAD holds gains. $3.5bln infra. bill goes to Senate, Biden doubles climate crisis investment.
• Yields moved two ticks higher (10yr closed at 1.32%) trade at 1.33% now.
• Equities remain weak, Evergrande worries persist. (USA500 -3 (-0.08%) at 4354. USA500.F flat at 4358. No Tuesday turnaround. ; Dow -0.15%, Nasdaq +0.22%. Nikkei & China down VIX cools to 23.42.
• USOil continues to recover broke $71.00 earlier – inventories to come later today.
• Gold also recovers to $1780 but remains shy of key resistance at $1788.

Overnight – BOJ – no change – if anything a more Dovish outlook ” economy picking up as a trend, although it remained in a severe state due to the impact of the pandemic.” No sign of tapering any time soon. AUD back to 0.7250, AUDJPY up to 79.50. Evergrande will only pay local bond holders tomorrow but that was enough to ease concerns, at least for now. PBOC injected more funds into the local credit market. FT report there are enough empty apartments (new & unsold) in China to house 90 million people (30 million Chinese families) …-FT

European Open – December 10-yr Bund future down -22 ticks, underperforming versus Treasury futures. In FX markets both EUR & GBP corrected against USD, leaving EURUSD at 1.1718 & Cable at 1.3647. USDJPY recovered to 109.56 from 109.10 pre-BOJ. Risks from China & realization global supply chains will take longer to recover from Covid disruptions (BBG report chip shortage getting worse, lead time now 21 weeks, Honda in Japan working at 40% of capacity for 2 mths) have seen investors scaling back tapering concerns & we expect Fed to stick with a cautious wait and see stance for now, which should help keep stock markets underpinned.

Today – US Existing Home Sales, FOMC rate decision & Chair Powell press conference, more new supply from UK & Germany.



Biggest Mover @ (06:30 GMT) CADJPY (+0.65%) The oscillations continue capped at 86.00 and back to 85.00 yesterday trades at 85.75 now. Faster MA’s aligned higher, MACD signal line and histogram below 0 line but rallying. RSI 61 and rising. H1 ATR 0.150, Daily ATR 0.695.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Stuart Cowell
Head Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

Date : 23rd September 2021.

Market Update – September 23 – FOMC talk November Taper.


Market News

• USD (USDIndex 93.52) rallies following FOMC – Taper possible from November, first rate rises now brought forward into 2022, Evergrande due to pay local bondholders today, shares rise in HK.
• Yields flattened as 5yr up 30 yr down – (10yr closed higher at 1.336%) trade at 1.329% now.
• Equities rallied over 1%, sentiment rises but Evergrande worries persist (HSBC, UBS & Blackrock – exposed to a total of $875m). USA500 +41 (+0.95%) at 4395. USA500.F flat at 4396. Dow +1.00%, Nasdaq +1.02%. Nikkei (closed) & China higher. VIX tumbles to 21.62.
• USOil continues to recover broke $72.00 – inventories in line (-3.5m barrels). GS talk of $85+ if there is a cold winter
• Gold dropped to $1760 but has recovered to $1764.

Overnight – FED Highlights – We now have 9 forecasts of a 2022 rate hike instead of 7, with 9 instead of 11 now expecting no change. From the dots, it’s clear that the large majority of policymakers want to start raising rates in late-2022 & get back to near-normal by 2024. GDP, saw trimmings for the Fed’s 2021 central tendency to 5.8%-6.0% from 6.8%-7.3%, 2021 headline and core PCE chain price central tendency boosts to 4.0%-4.3% and 3.6%-3.8% respectively. 2021 jobless rate central tendency boosts to 4.6%-4.8%. POWELL – “substantial further progress” has been met for inflation, but there is more uncertainty surrounding the maximum employment goal. Powell noted a split among the FOMC whether employment has improved satisfactorily. He thinks it has “all but been met”.Tapering“could end around the middle of next year.”

AUD PMI’s stronger than expected but remain very weak (Services only 44.9).

European Open – The December 10-year Bund future is down 21 ticks, the 30-year future meanwhile has moved higher with Treasury futures. DAX & FTSE 100 futures are up 0.5% with risk appetite strengthen post-Fed and amid easing concern on Evergrande, at least for now. In FX markets both EUR and pound strengthened against a steady to lower dollar. Investors are likely to remain cautious ahead of the local central bank announcements from BoE, SNB and Norges Bank today. EURUSD at 1.1715 & Cable at 1.3653.USDJPY recovered to 109.86.

BoE Preview: Expected to keep policy settings on hold, but minutes will be watched carefully especially with 2 new MPC members – Catherine Mann (Centrist) & Huw Pill (Hawkish). The central bank already signaled a more hawkish outlookon rates at the previous meeting, which to a certain extent pre-empted the jump in inflation and tightness in labour markets that were the key message of last week’s economic reports. However, retail sales numbers were pretty dismal & consumers are facing higher taxes as well as a phased out wage support, with the phasing out of the furlough scheme a key factor for the BoE’s policy decision going forward. On top of this the country is facing an energy crisis that is having unexpected knock on effects also for the food sector. The central scenario at the moment is for the labour market to remain tight & wage growth strong, as companies are increasingly forced to up wage offers to attract staff. Against that background, the first rate hike could come in H1 2022, depending on virus developments & how the energy market gets through the winter.

Today – SNB, Norges Bank (rate hike likley), BoE, CBRT & SARB rate decisions, Eurozone, UK & US flash PMIs,US Weekly Claims, Canadian Retail Sales, ECB’s Elderson.



Biggest Mover @ (06:30 GMT) CADJPY (+0.38%) 3 days in row! Breaks two day high t 86.00 and rallied to 86.32 now. Faster MA’s aligned higher, MACD signal line and histogram broke 0 line yesterday, RSI 72.96 OB but still rising. H1 ATR 0.150, Daily ATR 0.695.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Stuart Cowell
Head Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

Date : 24th September 2021.

Market Update – September 24 – Yields Leap higher.


Market News

• USD (USDIndex 93.10) weakened to Wednesday lows (92.94) post BOE, SNB, Norges Bank, CBRT, weak PMI’s & Claims and Evergrande missing interest payment deadline – AND no comments from the company. US Federal budget – stand-off continues.
• Yields stormed higher overnight (10yr closed higher at 1.336%) jumped 10bps to 1.434% in Asian trades (highest since March 2020)
• Equities rallied again over 1%, sentiment rises but Evergrande worries persist (HSBC, UBS & Blackrock – exposed to a total of $875m). Total offshore exposure – $20bln of the $300bln. USA500 +53 (+1.21%) at 4448. USA500.F lower at 4433. Dow +1.48%. NIKE & Costco beat Earnings. Asian mixed – Nikkei +2%, China lower. VIX tumbles again to 20.50
• USOil continues to recover breaches $73.00 – GS talk of $85+ if there is a cold winter.
• Gold dropped to $1737 (31 day low) has recovered to $1755 now.

Overnight – NZD trade balance tanked, JPY CPI & Manu & Services PMI all missed, UK Consumer Confidence halved (-13 vs -7).

European Open – December 10-yr Bund future down -24 ticks, alongside broad losses in US futures. Norway kicked off rate hikes in Europe, BoE is also inching towards reduced stimulus which together with Fed tapering hints this week seems to have triggered a market shift. Stocks weren’t too spooked by the yields rise, but uncertainty over Evergrande’s USD coupon payments and lingering concern that China’s property boom could implode and the growth engine running out of steam has seen equity markets turning more cautious once again. DAX future currently down -0.1%, FTSE 100 future little changed. FX markets flat – Sterling holds up, JPY weaker – EURUSD at 1.1732 & Cable at 1.3725 USDJPY recovered to 110.50.

Today – German IFO, US New Home Sales, FedSpeak Williams, Mester, Clarida, Powell, George, ECB’s Elderson, BoE’s Tenreyro.



Biggest Mover @ (06:30 GMT) GBPJPY (+0.22%) 3 day rally from summer low at 149.40 continues after Hawkish BOE. spiked to 151.70 earlier. Faster MAs aligned higher, MACD signal line & histogram broke 0 line yesterday, RSI 74.50 OB but still rising. H1 ATR 0.150, Daily ATR 0.695.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Stuart Cowell
Head Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

Date : 27th September 2021.

Market Update – September 27 – Yields, Evergrande & Oil.


Market News

• USD (USDIndex 93.25) weakened on open but holds as reflation trade gains momentum. Scholz (current Fin. Min. & leader of the opposition SDP) likely to be next German Chancellor, (overall EUR positive). BOJ Mins “will not hesitate to add to easing policy”.
• Yields hold at recent highs (10yr closed 1.46% from 1.48% high) Now at 1.447% in Asian trades (highest since March 2020)
• Equities rallied but closed flat, Evergrande worries persist (HSBC, UBS & Blackrock – exposed to a total of $875m). Total offshore exposure – $20bln of the $300bln. USA500 +6.5 (+0.15%) at 4455 & over a key technical level. USA500.F higher at 4468. Asian equities higher, ASX leads at +0.6%. VIX closed below 20.00 Friday – trades at 19.32 now.
• USOil rally continues (October 2018 highs) +1.0% today & gapped at open, catalyst – Supply disruptions & inventory drawdowns – $74.88 – GS raised year end target to $87, higher, if there is a cold winter.
• Gold up from Friday lows, $1740 (touched $1760) to $1755 now.
• FX markets USD bid – CHF & JPY weaker – EURUSD – 1.1715, Cable 1.3660, USDJPY 110.70.

Week Ahead – Month & Quarter end, US Senate vote on Infra & Fiscal budget, 2nd Evergrande interest payment ($49.5m), Japan to have new PM Wednesday. Dozens of Central bankers on podiums worldwide.

European Open – December 10-yr Bund future up 27 ticks, DAX & FTSE 100 futures up 0.6% & 0.7% respectively, suggesting Friday’s bout of risk aversion is abating, although China risk & surge in energy prices will remain in focus.

In Europe investors will try to assess the impact of yesterday’s election in Germany, which signalled the end of the Merkel era & brought a shift in the balance of power, but no outright majority, which means the country is now facing a period of uncertainty while party leaders try to hammer out a coalition agreement. With the Left Party failing to clear the 5% hurdle though the threat of a participation of the party in government has been avoided, which may be enough to boost confidence today & EUR in the longer term.

Today – US Durable Goods, ECB’s Lagarde, Panetta, Fed’s Evans, Williams, Brainard, BoE’s Bailey, 2yr & 5yr US supply.



Biggest Mover @ (06:30 GMT) CADCHF (+0.58%) 4-day rally from September low at 71.80 last Tuesday, next resistance 0.7350 & 0.7375. Faster MAs aligned higher, MACD signal line & histogram rallying higher, RSI 71.00 OB but still rising. H1 ATR 0.00095, Daily ATR 0.0064.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Stuart Cowell
Head Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

Date : 28th September 2021.

Market Update – September 28 – Energies skyrocket.


Market News

• Yields rose (10yr closed at 1.51% – the highest level since June, with the 30-year testing 2.04%, while the 5-year hit 1.005% before rates retreated from those key areas). Now at 1.447% in Asian trades (highest since March 2020).
• Equities extended losses, but stabilised into this morning. Durable goods added to the bearish bias seen since FOMC’s hawkish pivot last Wednesday. USA500 -51 at 4431 (S1), USA100 -319 at 15095, but currently at 15160. USA30 advanced 0.2% as strength in materials, energy, and financials supported.
• Asian equities trade mixed, – property stocks rallied in Hong Kong after China’s central bank said it will work to safeguard the “healthy” development of the property markets – ASX corrected at -1.4%. VIX rebounded from 20DMA & closed at 20.27.
• USOil rally continues (October 2018 highs) – Brent at 2018 highs, over $80.
• Energy was up over 3.5%, as oil prices approached three-year highs. Financials rose near 1.5% on higher rates, while technology was down near 1% for the same reason.
• FX markets – GBP bid – helped by higher rates. – USD & JPY weaker – USDJPY – 110.30, Cable 1.3700, EURUSD 1.1681.

European Open – The December 10-year Bund future is down 20 ticks, US futures have also sold off and the US 10-year rate has lifted above 1.5% as investors continue to bring forward rate hike expectations. GER30 and UK100 futures are still up 0.2%, US futures are also mostly higher, as China’s central bank tried to calm nerves on the health of the property sector.

Gilts underperformed yesterday and are likely to continue to remain under pressure after BoE governor Bailey re-enforced the bank’s message on the possibility of hiking rates before bond buying has ended. Many are now expecting a rate hike to come in the first quarter of next year, and while Bailey also highlighted the problems the UK economy is facing this winter, he stressed that monetary policy won’t be able to fix those.

Lagarde continues to try and keep rate hike speculation at bay and will likely continue along those lines when she opens the ECB’s annual conference on central banking today.

Today – Data releases are thin on the ground again, but include ECB Lagarde and Chairman Powell speeches and US Consumer Confidence.



Biggest Mover @ (06:30 GMT) AUDJPY (+0.48%) Broke 81.00 barrier ahead of elections. Next resistance 81.40 & 81.80. Faster MAs flattened, suggesting consolidation, MACD signal line & histogram rallying higher, but RSI turned below 70 and dropping. H1 ATR 0.1300, Daily ATR 0.309.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

Date : 29th September 2021.

Market Update – September 29 – Asian shares set for their Worst Quarter.


Market News

• The surge in Treasury rates was a major catalyst behind the steep drop on Wall Street, though the looming debt limit and potential government shutdown on October 1, and more importantly the threat of default, weighed heavily on US assets.
• China’s power crunch worsens.
• Yields stabilised (30-year closed to 2.10% and the 10-year hit 1.565% before dipping late in the session as some dip buyers stepped forward).
• The MSCI’s gauge of Asian stocks saw the biggest drop in almost six weeks and is set for the first quarterly slide in six. – Evergrande concerns resurfaced as China stepped in to buy a stake in a regional bank from the developer. Hong Kong’s central bank has reportedly asked lenders to report their exposure to the Group and Fitch Ratings downgraded the developer’s rating to C from CC.
• Testimony from Fed Chair Powell and Treasury Secretary Yellen did not do the markets any favors either but added to the overall uncertainties emanating from Capitol Hill.
• Equities extended losses in Japan, JPN225 down -2.6%. USA500 was off -2.0% at 4355, USA100 paced the plunge in the indexes, tumbling -2.8%, below 15,000. USA30 was -1.6% lower.
• USOil dropped back below the $74 mark, after reaching a high of 74.87.
• FX markets – GBP selling off sharply yesterday but steadied so far today – USD corrected – USDJPY – 110.33, Cable 1.3527, EURUSD 1.1677.

European Open – Some stabilisation then for the beleaguered bond market and stocks are also showing signs of life, with GER30 and UK100 futures posting gains of 0.4% and 0.2% respectively, while US futures are up around 0.6%.

After the sharp sell off in equity markets in recent days, dip buyers were bound to emerge eventually – Will calm in bond markets last for long? – even if central bank officials will do their best to calm nerves this week.

Unless the China risk escalates and spills ove,r monetary policy support is set to be phased out gradually over the next year and stocks will have to adjust to the changed outlook.

Today – Data releases today include UK lending data and Eurozone ESI economic confidence and there are also a number of speakers at the ECB’s conference on central bankers. Pending Home Sales from the US are also on tap.



Asset of Interest: Cotton (+6.53% in September) Broke 101 barrier, posting a fresh record high, extending its rally for an 8th day in a row and breaking the upper daily BB line. Daily RSI at 73 while MACD line extended above 0 suggesting an increase of positive bias.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

Date : 30th September 2021.

Market Update – September 30 – Inflation remains a major issue!.


Market News

• Global central bank officials stuck to cautious optimism at the ECB conference on central banking and data releases overnight were mixed. – Lagarde stressed the “reopening of the economy”.
• Traders are still cautious, while keeping a wary eye on US budget talks, as a deadline to keep running is approaching amid last minute political wrangling in Washington.
• China PMI readings mixed – manufacturing PMI unexpected signalled contraction, while the Caixin PMI came in stronger. Japan production as well as retail sales disappointed, while Australia building permits jumped. UK GDP revised sharply higher in the final reading.
• Yields steadied (US 10-year rate stymied the drop in rates at 1.51%).
• Equities supported by the drop in Treasury yields which enticed buyers back into equities, especially with beliefs the recent declines were overdone. JPN225 down -0.1%, USA500 outperforming at 4398, USA100 slipped -0.24%.
• USOil steadied at the mid of $74 mark.
• “A combination of higher US yields, impending Fed tapering and skittish markets around the debt ceiling have fuelled this move (in the dollar),” as Westpac analysts wrote.
• FX markets – Strong USD, while GBP and EUR selling off sharply yesterday – USDJPY – 112.00, Cable 1.3409, EURUSD 1.1588.

Today – Today’s data calendar is pretty busy and includes German labour market data and the preliminary inflation report for Germany, but key will be the US GDP and PCE number.



Biggest mover as of 07:45 GMT – USDJPY (+0.48%) Reached 112 for the first time since January 2020. Even though the overall outlook turned positive, intraday consolidation prevails as fast MAs flattened along with RSI and a bearish crossed formed by Stochastic. MACD lines however sustains positive bias. ATR (H1) at 0.085 and ATR (D) at 0.583.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

Date : 1st October 2021.

Market Update – September 30 – Inflation remains a major issue!


Market News

• Global central bank officials stuck to cautious optimism at the ECB conference on central banking and data releases overnight were mixed. – Lagarde stressed the “reopening of the economy”.
• Traders are still cautious, while keeping a wary eye on US budget talks, as a deadline to keep running is approaching amid last minute political wrangling in Washington.
• China PMI readings mixed – manufacturing PMI unexpected signalled contraction, while the Caixin PMI came in stronger. Japan production as well as retail sales disappointed, while Australia building permits jumped. UK GDP revised sharply higher in the final reading.
• Yields steadied (US 10-year rate stymied the drop in rates at 1.51%).
• Equities supported by the drop in Treasury yields which enticed buyers back into equities, especially with beliefs the recent declines were overdone. JPN225 down -0.1%, USA500 outperforming at 4398, USA100 slipped -0.24%.
• USOil steadied at the mid of $74 mark.
• “A combination of higher US yields, impending Fed tapering and skittish markets around the debt ceiling have fuelled this move (in the dollar),” as Westpac analysts wrote.
• FX markets – Strong USD, while GBP and EUR selling off sharply yesterday – USDJPY – 112.00, Cable 1.3409, EURUSD 1.1588.

Today – Today’s data calendar is pretty busy and includes German labour market data and the preliminary inflation report for Germany, but key will be the US GDP and PCE number.



Biggest mover as of 07:45 GMT – USDJPY (+0.48%) Reached 112 for the first time since January 2020. Even though the overall outlook turned positive, intraday consolidation prevails as fast MAs flattened along with RSI and a bearish crossed formed by Stochastic. MACD lines however sustains positive bias. ATR (H1) at 0.085 and ATR (D) at 0.583.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

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Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

Date : 2nd October 2021.

Market Update – October 4 – USD Holds, Inflation & Evergrande worries persist.

• USD (USDIndex 94.00) holds at highs but down from Thursday 94.50 high. Strong US data on Friday (ISM Manu PMI 61.1, PCE 4.3% & UoM 72.8. Its NFP Jobs and Pandora Papers week.
• Yields hold at recent highs (10yr closed 1.465%) now at 1.47% in Asian trades (huge spike to 1.567% last week cooled but Yields “on notice”) China closed until Thursday, HK Property group (Hopson) has offered $5bn for 50% of Evergrande Real Estate. Contagion still a worry.
• Equities rallied on Friday, (Merck +8.37%) anti-viral drug Covid drug) USA500 +49.0 (+1.5%) at 4357 (but remains weak) USA500.F lower 4330. Asian equities mixed. VIX closed at 21.20 Friday – trades at 22.15 now.
• USOil holds at $75.20 ahead of today’s OPEC+ which is expected to agree “gradual” production increases, amid supply bottlenecks and inventory drawdowns.
• Gold holds at $1760 following last weeks collapse to $1720 as yields rocketed. 20-day MA $1765.
• FX markets USD bid – EURUSD 1.1600, Cable 1.3550, & USDJPY 111.00.

Week Ahead – RBA Rate Decision – (less Dovish ? but with Covid cases still climbing) Jobs Week – RBNZ Rate Decision (delayed rate hike coming?), Jobs week NFP – (460k vs 235k), ADP 430k vs 374k & Claims 350K vs 362k. Plus more PMI data.

European Open – The December 10-year Bund future is up 8 ticks at 170.30, Asian stock markets traded mixed, but DAX and FTSE 100 are up 0.4%, in catch up trade, after news from Merck lifted Wall Street on Friday. The boost, which also seemed to underpin the outperformance of the ASX in Asia seems to be waning though as China angst and mutterings of stagflation fears weigh on sentiment.

Today – EZ Sentix Index, US Factory Orders, ECB’s de Guindos, de Cos, Fed’s Bostic & Bullard, OPEC+ and Eurogroup meetings.



Biggest Mover @ (06:30 GMT) CADJPY (+0.24%) Continued Friday’s rally from 87.20 low to test resistance at 88.00 again. Faster MAs aligned higher, MACD signal line & histogram rallying higher, RSI 55.50 and neutral. H1 ATR 0.157, Daily ATR 0.882.


Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Stuart Cowell
Head Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

Date : 3rd October 2021.

Oil market hold near 7-year high.


USOIL is trading just over $78 per barrel, while UKOIL has spiked to $82.70, both above the highs seen yesterday after OPEC and its allies confirmed that they will be sticking with previously agreed output increases, rather than extending production further in the light of global energy constraints. However that wasn’t a surprise even though markets initially felt threatened by it! USOIL prices are at 7 year highs while UKOIL is at 3 year highs.

Given the spike in natural gas prices ahead of the European winter, oil prices will likely also remain underpinned. In the meantime, China angst and stagflation concerns continue to linger, but there are fears that price jumps in wider energy markets will push up oil prices, while capping the recovery not just in the manufacturing sector. Central bank officials are doing their best to calm nerves, but investors remain jittery. OPEC+ will meet again on November 4 and some expect the allies to meet again beforehand to discuss demand.



Oil prices have already surged more than 50% this year, a rise that has added and could continue adding to inflationary pressures that oil-consuming nations such as the US and India are concerned will derail recovery from the pandemic.

USOIL’s recent bullish pressures have been extended, breaking the upper weekly Bollinger band at 78.00, and upwards pressure is keeping the outlook bullish. The simple moving averages (SMAs) are extending northwards (20-, 50- and 200-day) endorsing medium term direction, with the overbought condition in the near term indicating a possible correction of the 2-month rally.

The daily MACD and RSI are positively configured, presenting the possible advent of further bulls, while the short term Stochastic is struggling to be sustained into bullish territory, promoting a near term pullback. If upside defences keep sellers at bay, the price may pullback to test the previous resistance (converted into support band of 68.00-70.00).



Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

Date : 4th October 2021.

Oil market hold near 7-year high.

• USD (USDIndex 94.00) recovers key handle after 93.65 lows on Monday & 94.50 10-mth highs last week. Better than expected (61.1) ISM Services PMI data.
• Yields moved higher (10yr closed 1.5290%) now at 1.569% in Asian trades – Yields very much “on notice” following RBNZ. (30-yr at 2.14%). China closed until tomorrow, no new Evergrande news, clock ticking.
• Equities turnaround Tuesday, led by Tech (Nasdaq+1.25%; NFLX+5.21%) USA500 +45.0 (+1.05%) at 4345 (but remains weak) USA500.F lower 4311. Asian equities mixed. VIX closed at 21.45 – trades up 2% at 22.15 now.
• USOil holds record highs $78.95 amid supply bottlenecks & inventory drawdowns. EIA Weekly data later.
• Gold slips on higher yields down to $1752 from $1770 highs yesterday. 20-day MA $1765.
• FX markets USD bid – EURUSD under 1.1600 significantly at 1.1580, Cable holds 1.3600, & USDJPY higher again at 111.75.

Overnight RBNZ increased intertest rates by 0.25% to 0.5%. NZD ticked higher but is now the weakest. German factory orders -7.7% M/M (largest decline since April 2020); EST. -2.2%, last month +3.4%. Biden spoke with Xi to cool tensions over Taiwan, pushed additional $3.5tn infra budget on tour of mid-west and backed Powell as criticism grows.

European Open – December 10-yr Bund future down 33 ticks, US futures also selling off after the RBNZ rate hike cemented tapering fears ahead of key US NFP Friday. Stock markets are concerned by stagflation scenarios & risk that reduction of monetary support will hit the global recovery. DAX & FTSE 100 futures down -0.7%, US futures also in the red.

Today – EZ Retail Sales, US ADP Employment Change, Oil Inventories, Fed’s Bostic, US congress to vote on raising debt ceiling, UK PM Johnson speech.



Biggest FX Mover @ (06:30 GMT) NZDUSD (-0.53%) Initially reacted higher on interest rate rise, to 0.6980 zone only to reverse to 0.6920 now. Faster MAs aligned lower, MACD signal line & histogram trending lower & under 0 line, RSI 30.7 & testing OS zone. H1 ATR 0.0012, Daily ATR 0.0068.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.