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Date : 8th November 2021.

Market Update – November 8 – Heavy News Weekend Weighs.

• After records for Equities (440 of S&P500 have reported so far & Q3 Earnings up 41% overall) & a 1-yr high for USDIndex to conclude a huge data week, news flow over the weekend weighs on markets to start the trading week.
• Tesla CEO Musk, via a Twitter poll, asked if he should sell a 10% stake (USD 21bln) in Tesla; 57.9% voted “Yes” with over 3.5mln total votes.
• US House voted to pass $1.2tln bipartisan infrastructure bill late on Friday & sent it to President Biden for signing.
• Chinese trade data showed a larger-than-expected trade surplus & strong exports, but USD-denominated imports missed estimates.
• Some China Evergrande unit offshore bondholders have not received interest payments due Saturday.
• UK reportedly prepared to trigger Article 16 of NI agreement & ditch customs checks before Christmas, EU sticking to deal.

———————————————————————————————

• USD (USDIndex 94.22) down from Friday’s 1-yr high 94.62 – post NFP – holds the bid.
• US Yields (10yr crashed into close at 1.453) lifted a tad overnight to 1.46%.
• Equities at all-time highs Friday – USA500 +17 (+0.37%) at 4697 (DOW -0.75%) – Big movers – PFE +10.86%, AirBnB +12.98%, DIS +3.14% – USA500.F back to 4683. Asian equities weaker.
• USOil – bounced Friday from Thursday’s low at $77.15 – rallied again today as ARAMCO increases prices – trading back to $81.00 now from $79.75 close on Friday.
• Gold recovers further from Friday’s breach & break of $1800 as yields remain weak. Touched $1820 today back to $1816 now.
• FX markets – EURUSD 1.1550, Cable 1.3478, USDJPY now 113.57.

European Open The December 10-year Bund future is down 9 ticks, U.S. futures are also losing ground. Markets are still finding a new equilibrium after central banks did their best to slap down overblown tightening expectations for the coming years last week. ECB’s Lane in an interview with a Spain’s El Pais also argued again that the current spike in prices will be temporary and that the central bank should not overreact, as inflation is still projected to undershoot target in the medium term. The DAX and FTSE 100 futures are currently down -0.2% and -0.1% respectively, with a -0.4% correction in the NASDAQ leading US futures lower.

Week Ahead – All about inflation data this week, with FED (and most other CBs) behind the curve – will they have to do more, more quickly, or are they correct in their assessment of the “transitory” nature of inflation? A plethora of central bankers will have the platform this week – kicking off today with 4 from the Fed.

Today – EZ Sentix Index, Fed’s Powell, Evans, Harker, Montgomery; ECB’s Lane



Biggest FX Mover @ (07:30 GMT) NZDCHF (+0.63%) Recovering from Friday low at 0.6460 continues. Strong move over 0.6500 today to test 0.6530. Faster MAs aligned higher, MACD signal line & histogram rising& over 0 line, RSI 67 & rising. H1 ATR 0.0010, Daily ATR 0.0052.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Stuart Cowell
Head Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

Date : 9th November 2021.

Market Update – November 9 – USD Cools ahead of Inflation data.

• USD (USDIndex 93.85) down again from Friday’s 1-yr high 94.62, under 94.00. PPI today & CPI tomorrow weigh as equities grind higher & yields slip again. FED Vice-Chair Clarida remained Dovish “a ways away from considering raising interest rates,” although “necessary conditions for raising the target range for the federal funds rate will have been met by year-end 2022.” Bullard & Bowman much more Hawkish; “If inflation is more persistent than we are saying right now, then I think we may have to take a little sooner action in order to keep inflation under control.”
• Evergrande contemporary Kaisa needs “help”, downgraded by Fitch; Fed warns “ailing Chinese real estate sector poses threat to US economy” – FT
• US Yields (10yr closed down again at 1.474%) lifted a tad overnight to 1.497%, below key 1.50 level.
• Equities at all-time highs again but limited gains – USA500 +4.17 (+0.09%) at 4701 – Big movers – TSLA -4.84%, AMD +10.14%, AMC +8.06%. Softbank, PayPal, Roblox, Tencent and Zynga all beat Earnings expectations – USA500.F back to 4686. Asian equities weaker.
• USOil – slips below $81.00 to $80.65. Biden may act on high US Gasoline prices – speaking with OPEC+ re output, Private Inventories later today.
• Gold recovers further from Friday’s breach & break of $1800 as yields remain weak, inflation worries swirl and seasonality looms. Touched $1827 for a 45-day high earlier, back to $1824 now.
• FX markets – EURUSD up to 1.1600, USDJPY under 113.00, @112.80 & Cable up to 1.3570.

Overnight – JPY data mixed; Earnings & Current Account weaker than expected, Lending and Econ. Sentiment significantly higher. JPY recovers recent losses. German Trade Balance missed – Exports declined -0.7% while Imports nudged up 0.1%, suggesting more weakness.

European Open – Dec 10-yr Bund future up 1 tick, DAX & FTSE 100 futures down -0.2% & -0.3% respectively, US futures also in red, after a largely weaker session across the Asia-Pacific region overnight. Volatility in bond markets has been very high, as markets struggle to find an equilibrium amid the gradual advancing turn in CB cycles. That keeps central bank comments firmly in focus.

Today – EZ ZEW, US PPI, A whole gaggle of CB Speak – ECB’s Panetta, Knot, Lagarde, Schnabel, BOE’s Bailey & Broadbent, Fed’s Bullard, Powell, Daly. US 10-yr Bond Auction.



Biggest FX Mover @ (07:30 GMT) NZDJPY (-0.39%) RJPY up on overnight data mix. back under 81.00 today to test 81.60. Faster MAs aligned lower, MACD signal line & histogram falling & under 0 line, RSI 39 & falling. H1 ATR 0.122, Daily ATR 0.784.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Stuart Cowell
Head Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

Date : 10th November 2021.

Market Update – November 10 – Inflation, Oil & Yields.

• USD (USDIndex 94.09) recovers 94.00, PPI in-line with exceptions but Chinese PPI hit an all-time (26-yr) high +13.5%% & CPI doubled last month to 1.5%. Equities slip from key levels, yields decline to 6-wk lows and Oil rallied. FedSpeak dominated by Doves yesterday but calling caution on inflation – nothing new from Powell, Lagarde or Bailey. Brainard apparently interviewed for FED Chair, Biden cranks up gasoline plan & plans to video meet with Xi next week, Musk “lost” $50bn.
• Evergrande $148m interest payment due today & contemporary Fantasia needs “help”. This isn’t going away as the Chinese authorities (in the middle of reappointing Xi) may have hoped for.
• US Yields (10yr closed down again at 1.432%) having hit a 6-week low at 1.4150 yesterday as the Auction was filled at 1.44% (1.58% – last time) back to 1.46% now.
• Equities down failing to hold key levels. USA500 -16.00 (-0.35%) at 4685 – Big movers; TSLA -11.99%, PayPal -10.46%, VISA -3.22%, AMZN +2.5%. GE (once the world biggest company) to split into 3. USA500.F trades lower at 4677. Asian equities weaker again on Chinese data.
• USOil – rallies on drawdown in private inventories compared to a build. Spiked over $83.00 to 6-day high $83.25. Biden may act on high US Gasoline prices.
• Gold recovers further testing as high as $1833 on open as Inflation hedge trade builds, back to $1824 now.
• FX markets – EURUSD down to 1.1565, USDJPY back over 113.00, from 112.80 lows & Cable back to 1.3550 having rejected 1.3600. AUD & NZD at 4-wk low.

European Open – December 10-yr Bund future fractionally lower, Treasury futures underperforming. Yields are off session highs, but after bonds were surprisingly firm in the wake of yesterday’s US PPI, there is likely some caution ahead of the key US CPI later today.

Today – US CPI & Weekly Claims, ECB’s Elderson, – US & CAD closed tomorrow for Veterans Day.



Biggest FX Mover @ (07:30 GMT) NZDCAD (-0.44%) Chinese and Oil news combine to move pair lower. Collapsed from 0.8920 to 0.8820 before finding some support. Faster MAs aligned lower, MACD signal line & histogram falling & under 0 line, RSI 34 & recovering from 19.00 lows. H1 ATR 0.0011, Daily ATR 0.0062.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Stuart Cowell
Head Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

Date : 11th November 2021.

Market Update – November 11 – Boom goes the Greenback.

• USD (USDIndex 94.86) spiked to 94.96 (July 2020 high). US Inflation at 30-yr high – USD & Gold rocket, Yields rise and stocks sink. Weekly Claims in-line at pandemic lows. Musk has sold $5bln of #TSLA stock this week, (3% of the 10%) TSLA closed +4.34% yesterday. US & China agree surprise pact at COP26, Biden has a plan to “reduce high energy costs”. Overnight – AUD jobs & GBP GDP both missed & UK Industrial & manu. data also weak.
• Evergrande $148m interest payment was PAID – avoiding immediate default. Next payment due December 28 – $255m. They have total debts of $300bln ($19bln due outside of China).
• US Yields (10yr rallied to close up at 1.56%, a 7-week high, from the a 6-week low at 1.4150 Tuesday. Treasury markets closed today for Veterans Day.
• Equities down in worse day in a month. USA500 -38.5 (-0.82%) at 4646 – Big movers; TSLA +4.34%, PFE +3.64%, Ford -3.78% GOOGL -2.03%. Disney missed (DIS+ subscriptions & Theme parks) – 4.5% after hours. USA500.F trades lower at 4650. Asian equities weaker (ASX worst – Nikkei actually +ve on weak JPY) .
• USOil – off 7-year highs on Biden’s comments – Inventories – a smaller build than expected 1.0 m vs 1.6m & 3.3m last week – USOil fell to 79.50. Trades at $80.00 now.
• Gold recovers further testing as high as $1870 yesterday (5-mth high) as Inflation hedge trade builds, back to $1856 now.
• FX markets – EURUSD down to 1.1470, USDJPY back over 114.00, & Cable back to 1.3385. AUD & NZD at 5-wk low.

European Open – December 10-yr Bund future is down -31 ticks at 170.38; That will leave European markets to continue to digest yesterday’s hot US inflation number & continue to adjust rate hike expectations, which have come back with a vengeance. The spike in bond market volatility over the past month highlights that central bankers need to adjust their communication policy as the rate cycle turns & that repeating the mantra that inflation pressures will be temporary are no longer enough to soothe nerves. DAX & FTSE 100 futures currently down -0.2% and up 0.1% respectively.

Today – OPEC MOMR, ECB’s Lane, Schnabel,- US & CAD Veterans Day (Bond markets & Banks closed).



Biggest FX Mover @ (07:30 GMT) NZDUSD (-0.36%) Collapsed from 0.7100 to 0.7030 so far. Faster MAs aligned lower, MACD signal line & histogram falling & under 0 line, RSI 25 & still falling. H1 ATR 0.0011, Daily ATR 0.0062.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Stuart Cowell
Head Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

Date : 12th November 2021.

Market Update – November 12 – USD holds onto its multi-month bid.


Trading Leveraged Products is risky

• USD (USDIndex 95.16) spiked to 95.26 (new 16-mth high) vs. Euro at 14-mth low, USDJPY close to 4-yr high, Commodity & EM Currencies pressured too. Stocks mixed, Asian markets firmer, Treasury futures re-open positively. Next milestone – US Retail Sales on Tuesday (8.5-10% increase?). German Wholesale prices much hotter than expected (+0.6% vs 0.4% & 0.2% last time) . Xi Ping the new “helmsman”, Russia & Ukraine issues swirl.
• US Yields (10yr trades at 1.566%, up 1.7bp after Thursday’s holiday.
• Equities mixed, Dow -0.44%, NASDAQ +0.52% USA500 +2.5 (+0.06%) at 4649 – Big movers; TSLA rival RIVN +22%, FreeportMc +9%, GM & NVidia both +4.3%, Disney -7%. USA500.F trades lower at 4646.
• USOil – struggles & fails to hold $80.00, on the stronger USD & OPEC cutting its 2021 oil demand forecast due to high prices.
• Gold holds at highs too at $1857 now. A close over the psychological $1850 tonight would be 7 consecutive days of gains, something it hasn’t done since July 2020. Then it rallied from under $1800 to $1970 in 8 consecutive days, & topped at $2072 6 days later.
• FX markets – EURUSD down to 1.1435 earlier, lifted to 1.1450, USDJPY back over 114.00, & Cable back to 1.3385. AUD & NZD at 5-wk low.

European Open – German 10-yr Bund future up 12 ticks at 170.54, alongside broad gains in Treasury futures. DAX & FTSE 100 futures up 0.1% & US futures outperforming slightly, though there is some lingering anxiety on US warnings of a potential Russian invasion in Ukraine. Inflation concerns also continue to linger, as markets try to map out the future ECB path based on CB comments & official forecast. For BoE, the weaker than expected GDP print yesterday has seen markets scaling back rate hike expectations. Do arguments for an early move remain valid?

Today – EZ Industrial Production, US JOLTS, Uni. of Michigan, ECB’s Lane, Fed’s Williams.



Biggest FX Mover @ (07:30 GMT) NZDCHF (+0.22%) Bounced from 0.6460 again today, but remains under 0.6500. Faster MAs aligned higher, MACD signal line & histogram risning but under 0 line, RSI 53 & neutral. H1 ATR 0.00081, Daily ATR 0.0052.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Stuart Cowell
Head Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

Date : 15th November 2021.

Market Update – November 15 – Market eyes Geopolitics & Stimulus.

• • USD (USDIndex 02) spiked to 95.25 (new 16-mth high) on Friday. The consumer sentiment data (10-yr low)and JOLTS provided mixed views, with confidence plunging, 1-year inflation rising, and a slip in job openings, but a record 4.4 mln workers quitting their jobs.
  • Stocks hold higher after spike on Friday, amid strong earnings and dip buyers supported, along with a more calm trade in Treasuries. Asian markets also found buyer, Treasury futures re-open positively. China bourses struggled despite a stronger retail sales number.
  • Japan Q3 contracted -0.8% q/q, much more than anticipated -add to speculation that Kisihida will provide a big stimulus package to support the economy.
  • US Yields(10yr trades at 55%, down 0.9bp). Treasury yields have taken a break from their manic gains seen last week, supportive of the equity market, while hopes that inflation is temporary, and that supply chains will improve into the new year have helped investor sentiment as well.
  • Equities steady to Friday’s highs, Dow +0.5%, NASDAQ led the way +1% USA500 +0.7%, Nikkei lifting 0.4%.
  • Big movers; TSLA dip -2.8% (Musk has already offloaded a combined $6.9 billion), J&J +2%, Toshiba -1.0%, Disney -7%. (Disney’s streaming growth disappoints).
  • Johnson & Johnson: split of the company into two divisions, one being consumer health products, the other focuses on pharmaceuticals and medical devices. J&J’s shares are up 2% in early trade. Toshiba TOSYY 1.43% said it planned to split into three by March 2024 in response to shareholder pressure for a more-focused structure, following a similar path taken by fellow industrial conglomerate General Electric Co.
  • US-EU: agreed to end a festering dispute over US steel and aluminum tariffs imposed in 2018, removing a burden on transatlantic relations and averting a spike in EU retaliatory tariffs. – tariffs of 25% on steel and 10% aluminum, while allowing “limited volumes” of EU-produced metals into the United States duty-free.
  • USOil– slipped below $80.00, hit by a strengthening USD and speculation that Biden’s administration might release oil from the US Strategic Petroleum Reserve to cool prices.
  • Gold reversed to 1856 from 1868.79 – inflation keeps Gold supported.
  • FX markets – EURUSD & GBPUSD stack to 1448 earlier & 1.3420, USDJPYto 113.98. TRY at the record low level9.99.
  • Focus today:Virtual meeting Link between Chinese leader Xi Jinping and US President Joe Biden later in the day, with hopes of an easing in ongoing tensions across a range of issues including tariffs imposed on China under former President Donald Trump.
  • Today – The data calendar today includes Eurozone trade numbers, but markets will be more interested in comments from ECB speakers today as ECB’s Lagarde faces questions from lawmakers

Biggest FX Mover @ (07:30 GMT) XAUUSD declined from 1868.79 to 1856.24 but remains well 1835 support. Faster MAs flattened, MACD signal line & histogram steadied at 0 line, RSI 49 & neutral, indicating consolidation intraday. H1 ATR 3.96, Daily ATR 22.49.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

Date : 17th November 2021.

Market Update – November 17 – USD at 1-yr high with Stocks mix.

• USDIndex up and currently settled at 96.25, after hawkish Fed Bullard and strong retail sales, production and trade prices.
• UK Inflation at the highest in a decade due to energy costs (4.2% y/y VS 3.9% y/y) & strong labour data adding pressure on the BoE to deliver the long flagged rate hike at the December meeting.
• US Treasury Yields rise on overinflation concerns after the data and as expectations were raised for the Fed to quicken monetary policy normalization. – 10-year Treasury rate is up 0.4 bp at 1.64%.
• Bund futures are fractionally lower, on central bank’s dovish stance. – ECB’s Rehn still sees inflation easing next year.
• FED, BoE and BoC seem to be on the same road to rate hikes sooner than many expected!
• China’s developers also remain in focus with local media reporting that Evergrande’s online sales platform has closed some units. Authorities could ease restrictions on funding of developer.
• Treasury Secretary Yellen warned there is little time left for lawmakers to agree on a debt limit deal, reiterating a possible December 3 drop-dead date.
• Equities: Asian shares, were dragged by worries about COVID-19 and higher costs. Topix lost -0.4%.The stronger the dollar the higher costs for imported material for manufacturers.
• Consumer discretion initially paced the gains after Walmart (-2%) and Home Depot beats (+6%), but the USA100 took the baton into the finish and rose 0.76%. The USA500 was up 0.39% with the USA30 0.15% higher. GER30 and UK100 futures are down -0.2% and -0.4% respectively.
• Solid data, along with bullish equity outlooks from Goldman Sachs and JP Morgan, all aided sentiment yesterday.
• USOil down to 78.86 floor from 80.66. after US gasoline stocks dropped more than expected last week, potentially heightening pressure on the Biden administration to release oil from emergency reserves to cap soaring fuel prices.
• Gold down to 1849.49.
• FX markets – EURUSD down to 1.1263, GBPUSD spiked to 1.3473 but currently in the mid of a 3-day channel, and USDJPY flirts with 115.00 (its strongest since March 2017)
• Focus today: The data calendar also includes the final reading for Eurozone HICP, US Housing starts and building permits and Canadian inflation.

Biggest FX Mover @ (07:30 GMT) NZDJPY (+0.35%) topped to 80.61 above R1. Faster MAs aligned higher, MACD lines turn positive but signal line remains at 0, while RSI is at 67 and rising. H1 ATR 0.101, Daily ATR 0.696.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

Date : 22nd November 2021.

Market Update – November 22 – Euro suffers , Stocks steady, Oil squeezed.

• Trade is likely to be thinned this week by Thanksgiving in the United States, but the virus’ resurgence has traders once again monitoring COVID-19 cases and governments’ responses.
• USDIndex at 16-month highs above 96.00.
• Yields: 10-year Treasury rate is up 1.4 bp at 1.57%, while across the Asia Pacific region bonds are mostly higher, despite the prospect of a rate hike from the RBNZ. The 2s, 5s, and 7s also richened measurably ahead of the upcoming auctions and as hawkish comments from Fed VC Clarida and Governor Waller saw gains pared, but the move was short lived.
• China’s PBOC kept the loan prime rate unchanged once again and Covid jitters in Europe weighed on sentiment.
• Equities: Stock markets have traded narrowly mixed, with Topix and JPN225 down -0.08% and up 0.09% respectively. The Hang Seng lost -0.7%, while the CSI 300 lifted 0.5%. US stocks stalled due to mix of earnings news, albeit from record highs, with the USA30 tumbling -0.75%, hitting 35600 lows. The USA500 stabilised at 4713 while the USA100 rallied to 16632.
• USOil dipped to $74.06 lows as countries continue to debate the release of strategic reserves. Reuters report that: “Japanese officials are working on ways to get around restrictions on releasing national reserves of crude oil in tandem with other major economies to dampen prices”.
• Gold down to 1838.55 (S1).
• FX markets – Yen sell off continues with the CHF a notable exception. EUR and GBP weakened. EURUSD at 1.1262, GBPUSD steady below PP at 1.3426.

European Market Update: The 10-year Bund future is down -23 ticks, slightly underperforming versus Treasury futures, while in cash markets the US 10-year rate has lifted 1.2 bp to 1.56%. Stock futures are mostly higher, with the GER30 and UK100 posting gains of 0.1% and 0.2% respectively and US futures slightly outperforming.

The Covid situation in some parts of Europe is escalating again, mainly in those areas with a strong anti-vaccine movement and a low vaccine uptake and protests against nationwide curbs dominated the headlines over the weekend. With little on the data calendar today, Covid developments will likely remain in focus, as they will also play a part in upcoming central bank decisions.



Biggest FX Mover @ (07:30 GMT) NZDUSD (+0.74%) retested the 0.7000 area. Faster MAs are currently aligned on the right hand side indicating consolidation, MACD lines hold negative, while RSI is at 51 and Stochastic started falling, suggesting lack of further boost for now. H1 ATR 0.00105, Daily ATR 0.00610.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

Date : 23rd November 2021.

Market Update – November 23 – USD & Yields bid, Stocks & Gold sink.

• USD (USDIndex 96.36) testing 16-mth highs; rallied on Powell’s re-nomination & Brainard as Vice FED Chair. Commodity & EM Currencies pressured particularly. Stocks weaker partic. Tech stocks, Banks hold up.(Nasdaq -1.26%). Yields bid, Gold & Oil crashed further. Covid concerns grip Europe as winter dawns.
• US Yields (10yr trades at 1.620%, down 28 bps from yesterday’s rally.
• Equities Lower. NASDAQ -1.26%, USA500 -15 (-0.32%) at 4682 – USA500.F trades lower at 4665.
• USOil – struggles but up from below $75.00, after discussions to release global strategic reserves to cool prices & OPEC talk of raising output.
• Gold crashed over 2.5% losing over $45.00 following Powell news, next support $1800.
• FX markets – EURUSD down to 1.1225 earlier, lifted to 1.1255 now, USDJPY over 115.00, earlier now at 114.75 & Cable back to 1.3400, from 1.3380. USDMXN 21.00, USDTRY ATH 12.00, USDRUB 75.00 and USDZAR 15.8600.

European Open – December 10-y Bund future down -28 ticks, underperforming versus US futures & suggesting a further rise in European yields, which already spiked sharply yesterday. The Covid situation may be weighing on the growth outlook, but investors are increasingly convinced that the ECB is indifferent to the spike in inflation & long yields are backing up as central bankers keep a lid on tightening expectations & ECB officials play down the risk of second round effects. DAX & FTSE 100 futures meanwhile are down -0.5% and -0.4% respectively, as the rise in yields & Covid jitters remain in focus.

Today – EUR & US Flash PMIs, BoE’s Bailey & Haskel, ECB’s de Guindos



Biggest FX Mover @ (07:30 GMT) EURNZD (+0.42%) Bounced from 1.6070 yesterday to 1.6150 now rallied to breach 1.6200 Faster MAs aligned higher, MACD signal line & histogram rising and significantly over 0 line, RSI 64 but cooling. H1 ATR 0.00214, Daily ATR 0.01102.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Stuart Cowell
Head Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

Date : 24th November 2021.

Market Update – November 24 – USD & Yields Higher, Stocks Mixed, Oil Recovers.


Trading Leveraged Products is risky

• USD (USDIndex 96.50) holds on at highs; EM currencies under particular pressure. (TRY lost 15% after Erdogan refused a rate rise). RBNZ raised rates but NZD fell (like the last time they raised rates!) JPY Inflation 2 ticks better than expected. USDJPY at January 2017 levels around 115.00. PMI data better across the globe, Stocks mixed in US & Asia, Yields bid, Oil recovered significantly and Gold pressured by yields. Biden invites Taiwan to its “Summit for Democracy”, WHO talks of additional 700k Covid deaths across Europe (Slovakia latest to talk lockdowns).
• US Yields 10yr trades at 1.667%, down from yesterday’s 1.684% high.
• Equities Mixed. Musk sold more stock, Banks & Oil majors lead. USA500 +7.76 (0.17%) at 4690 – USA500.F trades lower at 4684.
• USOil – rallied over 3% to $78.20 highs despite global strategic reserves being sold to cool prices.
• Gold found a floor at 1782, but struggles to recoup $1800 at $1790.
• FX markets – EURUSD down to 1.1245, USDJPY over 115.23, earlier now at 114.88 & Cable back to 1.3375.

European Open – December 10-yr Bund future up 26 ticks, US futures also broadly higher. RBNZ delivered expected rate hike & markets seem to be scaling back fears of escalating inflation as even dovish leaning BoE & ECB members highlight risk of second round effects. ECB VP Guindos highlighted overnight that the drivers of inflation are becoming more structural, which adds to signals that the CB is finally ready to start reining in stimulus. DAX & FTSE 100 futures currently up 0.3% & 0.2% respectively.

Today – Big data day ahead of Thanksgiving Weekend. – German Ifo, US Weekly Claims GDP, PCE, Durables, FOMC Mins. & ECB speak



Biggest FX Mover @ (07:30 GMT) NZDJPY (-0.77%) RBNZ in-line but Dovish, sank from breach of 80.00 yesterday to 79.24, and 79.40 now. Faster MAs aligned lower, MACD signal line & histogram falling & below 0 line, RSI 35 & weak, Stochs OS. H1 ATR 0.17, Daily ATR 0.70.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Stuart Cowell
Head Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

Date : 25th November 2021.

Market Update – November 25 – Solid US data lifts USD, Stocks, & Yields.

• USD (USDIndex 96.70) holds on at 16-mth highs; Strong set of US data yesterday GDP (2.1%) up a tick but missed by a tick, Claims (199k) at 52-yr low, PCE (0.4% m/m & 4.1% y/y), in-line & largest since Jan.1991, along with a big beat (5.9%) for GDP Price index, Durable Goods (0.5%) in-line, Personal Spending (1.3%) a big beat, Personal Income (0.5%) a beat, Trade balance a big beat (14.6%) on strong Exports, Inventories (-2.2%) a big miss, but shows demand is strong. Consumer Sentiment a beat and New Home Sales flat (745K) and missed.
• Stocks & Yields pushed higher, Oil held onto gains and Gold tested 3-week lows.
• The FOMC Minutes showed (1) there could be a faster taper than the $15bn/mth currently planned, (2) Inflation could indeed be “persistent” (3) Clear division over 2022/23 rate hike cycle, Doves hold sway for now.
• US Yields 10yr trades at 1.644%, down from yesterday’s 1.694% high.
• Equities – Gains into the Holiday USA500 +10.76 (0.23%) at 4701 – USA500.F trades higher at 4713.
• USOil – peaked at $78.53 Inventories +1.0 vs -1.7 weakened prices – now at $77.65
• Gold found a floor at 1782, but struggles to recoup $1800 at $1790.
• FX markets – EURUSD now 1.1216, having broken 1.1200, USDJPY now 115.36, from 115.50 & Cable back to 1.3350 from 1.3315 yesterday.

Overnight – JPY PPI (1.0%) hit a 10-yr high, German GDP and consumer confidence both missed (1.7% vs 1.8% and -1.6% vs -1.0%) respectively.

European Open – December 10-yr Bund future up 16 ticks, while US futures are slightly in the red. Bunds already outperformed yesterday, as EZ spreads widened in the wake of hawkish leaning ECB comments & confirmation that German finance ministry will go to the liberal FDP, which likely means more resistance to debt mutualisation across the EZ & more pressure on ECB to limit asset purchases. DAX & FTSE 100 futures are currently up 0.4% & 0.3% respectively & US futures are posting gains of 0.3-0.4%, suggesting markets are coping quite well with the prospect of less accommodative policies. Indeed, it seems to an extent that they welcome the CB’s acknowledgement that inflation risks could be less temporary than previously thought.

Today – ECB Minutes, ECB’s Elderson, Schnabel, Lagarde and BOE’s Bailey



Biggest FX Mover @ (07:30 GMT) CADJPY (0.20%) The rally from Tuesday’s low under 90.00 has been sustained with 91.25 being tested earlier today. MAs aligned higher, MACD signal line & histogram rising & over 0 line, RSI 61, H1 ATR 0.077, Daily ATR 0.707.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Stuart Cowell
Head Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

Date : 26th November 2021.

Market Update – November 26 – B.1.1.529 – Risk Off.


Trading Leveraged Products is risky

• B.1.1.529 – RISK OFF – JPY, CHF & USD bid – AUD, NZD & CAD pressured – Stocks & Oil tank. (-2.5%) Treasuries in demand as yields slip.
  UK, Singapore, Taiwan & Israel ban flights from 6 South African Countries – 2 x cases also detected in Hong Kong. “B.1.1.529, has a spike protein that was dramatically different to the one in the original coronavirus that COVID-19 vaccines are based on.”
• USD (USDIndex 96.61) holds on around 16-mth highs; elsewhere AUDJPY down 1.4% and still falling, currently.

• The ECB Minutes – inflation coming down below 2% in the medium term, elevated inflation uncertainty & possible upside risks were flagged, bank needed to maintain a degree of flexibility on the future policy path The minutes flagged that PEPP could be phased out in steps until the end of the program in March next year, which be expect to be confirmed at the December meeting.
• US Yields 10yr trades at 1.54%, down from over 10bps
• Equities – Asian markets sink -2.5% (Nikkei) – USA500.F tanks from a close at 4705 to trade at 4624.
• USOil – glugs over 3.5% lower to $74.50, closed $77.42
• Gold rallies from $1788, breaches $1800 to trade at $1802.
• FX markets – EURUSD now 1.1234, USDJPY now 114.40 & Cable back to 1.3300.

Overnight – JPY Tokyo CPI inline, AUD Retail Sales big beat (4.9% vs 2.2%) and German Import prices leap +3.8% m/m, a whopping 21.7% in October, up from 17.7% in the previous month. Energy prices were again the main culprit +20.7% m/m jump in October that left prices 141% higher than in October last year.

European Open – The December 10-year Bund future is up 94 ticks at 171.92, Treasuries have outperformed and the ultra long end in both Germany and the U.S. have seen a huge rise in demand as the detection of a new virus variant that is feared to render vaccines much less effective spooked markets. DAX and FTSE 100 futures are down -1.9% and -2.2% respectively, while a 1.7% slide in the Dow Jones is leading the sell off in U.S. futures.

Today – CHF GDP, EZ M3 Money Supply, ECB’s Lagarde, Schnabel, Panetta, BoE’s Pill.



Biggest FX Mover @ (07:30 GMT) AUDJPY (-1.75%) Risk Off – sell off of the most sensitive FX pair. Daily support 81.00, 80.50 and then 80.00. MAs aligned lower, MACD signal line & histogram falling & under 0 line, RSI 7.3 OS & still falling. H1 ATR 0.208, Daily ATR 0.768.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Stuart Cowell
Head Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

Date : 29th November 2021.

Market Update – November 29 – Omicron dominates sentiment.

• USD (USDIndex 96.30) recovers from Fridays slump (95.98), Stocks lost over –2.2% in thin half-day trading, Oil FUTS lost –13%, Gold slumped and Yields tanked (10-yr 1.482%) on a safe haven (JPY & CHF bid) risk off day. (and a strange carry trade bid for EUR). Weekend news, as Countries block flights and tighten restricts, but first Omicron cases in SA appear mild and hospitalizations have not spiked, has seen a bounce in sentiment and Asian markets. Pfizer suggested it would take 100 days to adapt new vaccine, if required.
• US Yields 10yr trades up 5.1 bp at 1.52%, after Friday’s slump.
• Equities – tanked in thin and short day on Friday USA500 -106.84 (-2.27%) at 45941 – USA500.F trades higher at 4639.
• USOil – collapsed to $67.08 – now up nearly $4 at $71.00. OPEC+ have delayed this weeks meeting by 2 days & likely to delay planned January production increases.
• Gold spiked under $1780, has bounced to $1795 but struggles to recoup $1800
• FX markets – EURUSD now 1.1270, after a +125pip rally on Friday, USDJPY now 113.36, from 115.50 to 113.00 on Friday & Cable back to 1.3325.

Overnight – JPY Retail Sales recover but miss expectations (0.9% vs 1.2% & -0.5% last time).

European Open – The December 10-year Bund future is down -27 ticks, US futures are also in the red & the US 10-year rate is up 5.1 bp at 1.52%. Stock markets remained under pressure during the Asian part of the session, but DAX and FTSE 100 futures are up 1.2% and 1.3% respectively and a 1.2% rise in the NASDAQ is leading US futures higher. A part reversal of Friday’s flows then as virus developments remain in focus. Travel restrictions are making a come back and the services sector in particular is facing fresh pain, but as Lagarde suggested over the weekend, the impact of Omicron is unlikely to throw economies back to the situation at the start of the pandemic, meaning the overall situation has not really changed. We continue to see the ECB on course to end PEPP purchases on time in March next year, although developments will add to the arguments of those who want to keep the flexibility on the distribution of asset purchases at least for future emergencies. The BoE meanwhile may be postponing the planned rate hike into next year.

Today – German regional and national CPIs, Eurozone Consumer Confidence (final), US Pending Home Sales, ECB’s de Guindos, Schnabel, Lagarde, Fed’s Williams, Powell.



Biggest FX Mover @ (07:30 GMT) CADCHF (1.00%) The risk-off collapse on Friday 0.7400-0.7200 has recovered to 0.7280. MAs aligned higher, MACD signal line & histogram rising but still below 0 line, RSI 53.80 & rising H1 ATR 0.0018, Daily ATR 0.0062.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Stuart Cowell
Head Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

Date : 30th November 2021.

Market Update – November 30– Stocks at ups & downs.


Omicron remains in focus and warnings that it will leave current vaccines far less effective and that it will take time to modify and produce new ones has seen markets adjusting growth forecasts and central bank projections.

• USD (USDIndex 96.00 up from 95.92 low) saw a fresh wave of risk aversion as Treasuries sold off, but cautiously with only a modest back up in yields, & Stocks bounced significantly with the USA100 jumping over 2% intraday with IT a big winner. It closed with a 1.88% gain, with the USA500 1.3% firmer, and the USA30 up 0.68%.
• Wall Street stocks closed higher as investors were hopeful that the Omicron coronavirus variant would not lead to lockdowns after reassurance from US President Joe Biden.
• Moderna’s CEO told the FT that existing vaccines will be less effective and that it may take months before modified vaccines are available at scale. #Moderna +12.73% yesterday.
• US Yields 10- and 30-year rates were up just over 3 bps to 1.51% and 1.859%, respectively, with the 2-year 1bps higher at 0.508% The 10-year is currently corrected -3.9 bp to 1.46%, but it is still in negative territory, at -1.05% on Tuesday, keeping gold’s opportunity cost low.
• Equities – Topix and Nikkei are down -1.0% and -1.6% respectively, Hang Seng lost -2.3%, the CSI 300 -0.6%, while the ASX outperformed with a modest gain of 0.2%.
• USOil – down by 2%, drifted to $66.73 – after FT cast doubt on the efficacy of COVID-19 vaccines against the Omicron – expectations are growing that OPEC+, will put on hold plans to add 400,000 barrels per day (bpd) of supply in January.
• Gold spiked to $1795 – World Health Organization said on Monday carried a very high risk of infection surges.
• #TWTR was UP 12% pre-market on news Dorsey was leaving as CEO – it closed DOWN 2.74%. The USA100 rose+1.88%.
• FX markets – Yen rallied (a new flight to safety), Aussie and kiwi slide. USDJPY at 112.94, EURUSD now 1.1326 & Cable steadied to 1.3300-1.3330.

European Open – The December 10-year Bund future is up 46 ticks, Treasury futures are outperforming and in cash markets the US 10-year rate has corrected -3.9 bp to 1.46% amid a fresh wave of risk aversion. DAX and FTSE 100 futures are down -1.5% and -1.1% respectively, while a -1.1% drop in the Dow Jones is leading US futures lower. In FX markets both EUR and GBP gained against the Dollar. EGB yields had moved higher against the background of improving risk appetite and a jump in German inflation yesterday, but while Eurozone HICP today is likely to exceed forecasts, central bankers have already been out in force to play down the importance of the number for the central bank outlook and rate expectations. Virus developments will also help to take the sting out of the number.

Today – German labour market data, EU Inflation, Canadian GDP and US Consumer confidence are due today. Fed Chair Jerome Powell and Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen are due to testify before the US Senate Banking Committee at 15:00 GMT.



Biggest FX Mover @ (07:30 GMT) AUDJPY (-0.68%) Risk-sensitive currencies slid and safe havens gained. AUDJPY dropped to 80 lows (S2). Currently MAs point rightwards, MACD signal line & histogram below 0, RSI rising above 30 but Stochastic OS. Hence a mixed picture intraday.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

Date : 1st December 2021.

Market Update – December 1 – Taper gets a boost & Transitory gets “retired”.


Powell “retires” Transitory in light of Omicron & surprisingly suggests faster taper – Stocks tank, Dollar& Yields rise on faster tightening expectations.

• USD (USDIndex 95.90) back down from leap to 96.60 on Powell testimony. Saw fresh wave of risk aversion as Treasuries sold off, yields spiked (particularly the 2yr) , Stocks fell significantly with USA100 down over -2.4% (APPL bucked the trend +3.16%) USA500 -1.90% (-88pts) 4567 & USA30 off 652 pts or -1.86%. Consumer confidence saw a slump in the headline, and a rise to a 13-year high in the inflation component. The Chicago PMI fell to 61.8. Home prices increased to fresh record peaks.
• US Yields 10-year rates were down over 7 bps to 1.41% before closing at 1.443% before recovring to 1.468% now.
• Asian Markets – Equities – Topix and Nikkei are currently up 0.4%, the Hang Seng bounced 1.1% and the CSI 300 is up 0.1%. The ASX, which outperformed yesterday, dropped back -0.3%. Data over night – Japan’s manufacturing PMI came in stronger than expected and while China’s private PMI reading signalled stagnation at 49.9, that was compensated somewhat by the stronger than expected official manufacturing PMI released yesterday. AUD GDP was not as bad as expected -1.9% vs -2.7% & 0.7% last time.
• USOil – continues under pressure, down to $64.08 (14-week lows) yesterday – recovered to test $68.00 today – expectations continue to grow that OPEC+, will put on hold plans to add 400,000 barrels per day (bpd) of supply in January at their meeting tomorrow.
• Gold finally some intra-day volatility – Powell surprise spiked to $1808 – before testing $1770 with a couple of hours, back to $1788 now.
• FX markets – Yen rallied USDJPY dipped to 112.50, back to 113.40 now, EURUSD now 1.1326 & Cable steadied to 1.3300-1.3330.

European Open – December 10-yr Bund future down -11 ticks at 172.26, slightly outperforming versus Treasury futures. Central bankers may be getting more nervous about inflation outlook, but Omicron clearly is clouding over growth outlook & in Europe at least that will boost the arguments of the cautious camp at the central banks. US yields remain firmly below the levels seen before the new virus variant hit the headlines & sentiment is likely to remain jittery, even if stocks are set to back up from yesterday’s lows, with DAX & FTSE 100 future posting gains of 0.9% and 0.7% respectively & a 1.4% jump in the NASDAQ leading US futures higher. Data releases today kicked off with a big miss for German Retail sales (-0.3% vs 1.0%), higher UK house prices & firmer CPI from CHF.

Today – PMIs (EZ & UK),US Markit Final Manufacturing PMIs, US ADP and ISM Manufacturing PMI, JTC and OPEC meetings, BoE’s Bailey and Fed’s Powell & Yellen testify.



Biggest FX Mover @ (07:30 GMT) NZDJPY (+0.60%) Risk-sensitive currencies remain volatile, from a slide to 76.65 yesterday, today a rally to 77.80. Currently MAs aligned higher, MACD signal line & histogram over 0 and rising, RSI dipping from 70.00 at 58, Stochastic remain OB. H1 ATR 0.172, Daily 0.84.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Stuart Cowell
Head Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

Date : 2nd December 2021.

Market Update – December 2- Sentiment swings on Omicron news.


Powell reiterates Hawkishness, First case of Omicron confirmed in US – Stocks tank again under key technical levels, Yields slip again, USD mixed. Erdogan sacks Fin Min – TRY new all-time lows, Apple iPhone 13 demand weakens, GSK anti-viral drug remains active vs. Omicron

• USD (USDIndex 96.08) rotates through 96.00 due to lack of firm data regarding Omicron, markets reamin on edge. Stocks fell significantly with USA100 down over -1.83% USA500 -1.18% (-54pts) 4513 (opened the day +1.1%) and broke 50-day MA first time since October 14 & USA30 off 461 pts and under 200-day MA first time since July 13 2020.
• US Yields 10-year rates were down over 7 bps to 1.40% before recovering to 1.434% now.
• Asian Markets – Asian markets have traded mixed. Topix and Nikkei are down -0.5% and -0.7% respectively. The ASX lost -0.1%, but Hang Seng and CSI 300 are up 0.2% and 0.3%. Shenzen and Shanghai Comp are slightly lower though as officials seem eager to close a loophole used by tech firms to list abroad.
• USOil – continues under pressure, down to $64.50 yesterday – recovered to test $66.35 today – awaiting OPEC+ meeting later.
• Gold Up day yesterday but remains pressured testing $1775 now
• FX markets – Yen rallied USDJPY dipped to 112.70, back to 113.31 now, EURUSD now 1.1312 & Cable pressured 1.3192 low yesterday – 1.3275 now.

European Open – The 10-year Bund future is up 30 ticks, outperforming versus Treasuries, which remain pressured by the hawkish turn at the Fed. The 10-year Treasury yield has lifted 3.0 bp overnight, but at 1.43% remains far below the levels seen ahead of the Omicron scare, which the WHO seemed to try and play down somewhat. DAX and FTSE 100 down -1.1% and -0.9% respectively in catch up trade with the slide on Wall Street yesterday, while US futures have found a footing and are posting gains of around 0.6-0.8%.

Today – EZ Unemployment Rate, US Weekly Claims, Fed’s Bostic, Quarles, Daly, ECB’s Panetta, JMMC/OPEC+ meetings.




Biggest FX Mover @ (07:30 GMT) CADJPY (+0.77%) Risk-sensitive currencies remain volatile, from a slide to 87.85 yesterday, today a rally to 88.60. Currently MAs aligned higher, MACD signal line & histogram under 0 but rising, RSI 56 & rising, OB. H1 ATR 0.188, Daily 0.98.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

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Stuart Cowell
Head Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

Date : 3rd December 2021.

Market Update – December 3 – Pre-Omicron peak NFP?


In the foreign exchange market, the US Dollar Index remained range-bound, but was subsequently boosted by Yellen and Bostic’s speeches and closed at 95.97. In addition, the 10-year US Treasury yield rebounded 4 basis points to 1.44%.

In terms of non-US currencies, the Euro hovered around 1.13 against the US Dollar; the British Pound closed up 0.16% to 1.3297 against the US Dollar; the US Dollar ended a 4-day losing streak against the Yen to close at 113.16; the New Zealand Dollar and the Australian Dollar have been hovering at low levels throughout the year and closed at 0.6813 and 0.7091 respectively; the US Dollar and Canadian Dollar remained stable at a high level of 1.28; the US Dollar and Swiss franc continued to test the previous low level of 0.92.

In the precious metals market, spot gold fell below the 1770 level to $1769 per ounce; spot silver held steady above the 8-week low at $22.33 per ounce.

In the oil market, OPEC+ decided to keep the output increase of 400,000 barrels per day unchanged in January next year. US crude oil fell to a minimum of 62.20 US dollars, and then rebounded more than 7% to 67.01 US dollars/barrel.

Key recent events:
The labor market has grown moderately, and the Dollar has regained support and rebounded.

Yesterday, the number of layoffs at challenger companies in the United States in November fell further by 7,947 to 14,875, a record low since May 1993. In addition, as of the week of November 27, the number of initial claims for unemployment benefits recorded an increase of 222,000, which was lower than the market’s expectation of 240,000. After the data was released, its previous value was also revised down to an increase of 194,000 (previously an increase of 199,000). Judging from the four-week average, the number of people applying for unemployment benefits was 238,750, which was lower than the previous value of 251,000 (pre-revision: 252,250).

Overall, these data reflect the continued moderate growth of the US labor market, and may benefit the non-agricultural data that will be released later today. The market predicts that after the November seasonal adjustment, the non-agricultural employment population will record an increase of 555,000, slightly higher than the previous value of an increase of 531,000, the unemployment rate will record a five-month consecutive decline to 4.5%, and the employment participation rate will rebound by 0.1% to 61.7%, the average weekly working hours remained at 5.0%, and the average hourly wage rate and monthly rate increased by 5.0% and 0.4%, respectively.

In addition, the market will continue to track news about the Omicron virus strain. According to foreign media reports, cases of infection with the mutant strain have been found in the states of Minnesota and Colorado. However, despite the fact that Omicron has been pointed out as having a very high transmission capacity and leading to the risk of a further surge in infections, President Biden gave the market a shot in the latest speech and said that the government will not re-impose the lockdown measures. Judging from the known clues, the current Omicron variant is not likely to cause fatal symptoms to most patients (especially those who have been fully vaccinated), but because this new variant is still relatively new, uncertainty remains for now.

In addition, Treasury Secretary Yellen and Atlanta Fed President Bostic were hawkish. The former stated that it would be “prepared to abandon inflation temporarily” and that the strong US economy will prompt interest rate hikes; the latter stated that if inflation stays near 4% next year, the Fed may raise interest rates more than once. The US Dollar Index rebounded on the eve of the non-agricultural report and ended at 96.07.

Today – EZ, UK, US Markit Services PMIs, EZ Retail Sales, US and Canadian Labour Market Reports, US ISM Services, US Factory Orders, ECB’s Lagarde, Lane, BoE’s Saunders, Fed’s Bullard



Biggest FX Mover @ (06:30 GMT) EURNZD (+0.32%) From a high @ 1.6680 & slide to 1.6570 yesterday, back to resistance today at 1.6650. Currently MAs aligned higher, MACD signal line & histogram struggle with 0 line, RSI 56 & cooling. H1 ATR 0.0020, Daily 0.0131.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Stuart Cowell
Head Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

Date : 6th December 2021.

Market Update – December 6 – Stock futures rise, Oil bounces.

• USD (USDIndex 96.36) up , as Treasuries benefited again from the flight to safety, and as some of the oversold conditions from rate hike worries were pared. Stocks struggled after a lower close on Wall Street Friday, USA100 down over -2.0%, USA500 -0.84% to 4555 & USA30 up to 34784.
• Investors try to sort out the big risks from monetary policy, along with renewed uncertainties over covid and the Omicron variant hitting, and now with renewed restrictions, all the while pandemic supply/demand dislocations continue with varying impacts on growth and inflation. And the US mixed jobs report topped off. The earnings season has wound down, but worrisome guidance from some big tech firms.
• Traders keep a close eye on this month’s round of central bank meetings.
• Chinese Premier Li Keqiang signaled an easing of reserve requirements and China’s securities watchdog tried to play down fears over the withdrawal of Chinese companies from American exchanges.
• US Yields 10-year rate is up 4.4 bp at 1.39%. UK 10-year rate lifted 4.4 bp to 1.39%, while bond markets across the Asia Pacific region were supported and the the 10-year JGB rate down -1. 2bp at 0.036%.
• USOil – steadied below 200-DMA at $68.00 – recovered from $62.24 today -rose on positive sentiment after top exporter Saudi Arabia raised prices for its crude sold to Asia and the United States, and as indirect U.S.-Iran talks on reviving a nuclear deal appeared to hit an impasse.
• Gold at $1780 area, as Treasury yields soft, unwinding some of the November selloff as it was seen as overdone, and as investors move back into haven trades as angst over an aggressive Fed policy posture abates and inflation concerns ease.
• FX markets – EURUSD dropped back to 1.1279 and cable to 1.3225, USDJPY lifted to 113.11 & Cable steadied to 1.3328. Antipodeans bounced.

European Open -The March 10-year Bund future is fractionally higher, while US futures are in the red, although in cash markets, the US 10-year rate is up 4.4 bp at 1.39%. Asian stock markets also traded mixed and sentiment is likely to continue to continue to fluctuate. GER30 and UK100 futures are up 0.9% and 0.8% respectively and US futures are also posting broad gains, amid some hope that Omicron may turn out to be more infectious, but less deadly than previous strains.

Today – Today’s data calendar had German manufacturing orders which plunged -6.9% m/m in October, much more than anticipated. BoE’s Broadbent speech is also on tap.



Biggest FX Mover @ (07:30 GMT) NZDJPY (+0.97%) Currently MAs flattened, MACD signal line & histogram below 0 and dipping, RSI steadied at 45, Stochastic declines. H1 ATR 0.138, Daily 0.91.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

Date : 7th December 2021.

Market Update – December 7 – Equities and currencies gain as Omicron worries wane.

• USD (USDIndex 96.15) steady, as Treasuries rose sharply on the improvement in risk appetite on expectations for an acceleration in QE tapering to be announced at next week’s FOMC meeting, and as the market set up for this week’s $112 bln in coupon supply. Stock market sentiment strengthened further overnight and the GER30 and UK100 are posting gains of 0.6% and 0.2% respectively, while a 0.7% rise in the USA100 is leading US futures higher.
• The RBA left policy settings unchanged, but sounded relatively optimistic on the virus front, which for some signalled that an early exit from QE is on the cards.
• Growing confidence that Omicron won’t derail the global recovery, but that also means that central banks remain on course to rein in stimulus as new virus restrictions will likely add to inflation pressures.
• Today’s released UK BRC retail sales were stronger than expected, but may be distorted by warnings that consumers should bring forward Christmas shopping in the light of supply chain disruptions, which could worsen over the winter.
• US Yields 10-year rate lifted 1.7 bp to 1.45% overnight, JGB rates are up 1.7 bp at 0.051% as stock market sentiment continued to improve. Australia’s 10-year jumped 6.5 bp to 1.64%.
• USOil – higher above 200-DMA at $70.60 – concerns about the impact of the Omicron variant on global fuel demand eased, while Iran nuclear talks stalled, delaying the return of Iranian crude.
• FX markets – EURUSD remains below the 1.13 mark, while Cable is still below 1.33 as the FOMC decision comes into view. USDJPY lifted to 113.72, but currently 113.58.

European Open – The March 10-year Bund future is down -50 ticks, underperforming versus Treasuries and leaving Bund yields to jump sharply in catch up trade, after Treasury yields continued to move higher through the Asian session.

Today – The calendar has Eurozone detailed GDP numbers for Q3, but the focus will be on German ZEW investor confidence. In the US session, we have US trade and productivity and Canadian Ivey PMI.



Biggest FX Mover @ (07:30 GMT) EURAUD (-0.41%) Currently MAs are aligned lower, MACD signal line & histogram below 0 and dipping, RSI sloping to 26, Stochastic declines. H1 ATR 0.00226, Daily 0.01442.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

Date : 8th December 2021.

Market Update – December 8 – Stocks extend gains.

• USD (USDIndex settled at 96.10) as risk appetite continued to improve, with global stock markets strengthening following Wall Street higher, with Topix and JPN225 posting gains of 0.6% and 1.4%. – The BOJ bought a total of 1.025 trillion yen ($9.03 billion) JGBs.
• Reuters: Intel’s INTC.O announcement of plans to take its self-driving car unit Mobileye public in the United States next year pushed his shares to a 3% gain and cheered chip investors across the board.
• Japan Q3 GDP revised lower with second report. Shoppers seemed to have already tightened their purse strings, leaving overall activity down -3.6% on a seasonally adjusted annualised basis. Business investment wasn’t quite as weak as feared, but the pressure on spending already evident in Q3 may foreshadow the impact Omicron will have on the overall outlook. Supply chain issues are weighing on exports and will continue to weigh on growth in Q4, which is generally expected to be even worse than the third quarter.
• US Yields 10-year rate still dropped -1.0 bp to 1.46% overnight, and JGB rates and Australia yields also corrected, as speculation that central banks will move earlier than anticipated is pushing up short rates, while supporting the long end to some extent.
• The bear flattening trade continues to weigh on Treasuries. The significant cheapening in rates since last month amid rising risks of Fed rate hikes made the maturity a little more palatable. The apparent strength in the economy is also adding to expectations the FOMC will not only announce an acceleration in QE tapering next week, but could also push up rate liftoff to the spring, and potentially hike rates three times in 2022.
• USOil – steadied at $71.00 – Risks: assessment of full impact of the Omicron variant on economy; effectiveness of existing vaccines; US-Iran nuclear talks to resume later this week; US-Russia tension raised as Biden warns Putin of sanctions, Nord Stream 2 disruption if Russia invades.
• FX markets – US Dollar struggled, EUR and Sterling strengthened somewhat against a largely weaker Dollar, leaving EURUSD at 1.129 and Cable at 1.3240. USDJPY pullback to 113.30.

European Open – The March 10-year Bund future is fractionally lower, underperforming versus US futures, while in cash markets the US 10-year rate has corrected -1.4 bp to 1.46%. 2-year yields have moved higher and curves flattened as improved growth optimism is boosting expectations of central bank action as inflation remains high. The Fed has sounded hawkish through the Omicron scare so far and while the doves at the BoE and ECB may want to err on the side of caution next week, the tide on monetary policy clearly is turning.

Today – The European data calendar is pretty quiet today, ahead of German trade data tomorrow and UK GDP numbers on Friday. Hence all eyes today are on BoC rate decision and statement. US Jolts are also on tap.



Biggest FX Mover @ (07:30 GMT) EURGBP (+0.42%) Currently MAs are aligned higher as the asset recovered more than 50% of 3-day losses, MACD signal line & histogram are above 0 and RSI is retesting OB barrier, but Stochastic declines suggesting a possible correction. H1 ATR 0.00062, Daily 0.00448.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.